Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Morristown, TN

853 
WWUS54 KMRX 111817
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

TNC065-115-111830-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-110611T1830Z/
HAMILTON TN-MARION TN-
117 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM
CDT/230 PM EDT/ FOR MARION AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AT 109 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SOUTH PITTSBURG...OR NEAR JASPER...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8581 3517 8578 3518 8539 3516 8538
      3518 8536 3518 8532 3500 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 359DEG 9KT 3498 8566

$$

GH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1057 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED INTO NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FIRE A FEW SMALL
THUNDERSTORMS.  WE MAY GET TO THE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SOON ENOUGH BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES FADES...THEREFORE...THEY COULD BE PLAYERS IN TODAY'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE TERRAIN WILL BE THE OTHER OBVIOUS PLAYER
IN INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.

LOOKING AT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT
CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 15-20
KT 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTH...VS LESS THAN 10 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTH...THEREFORE...INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL PERSIST LONGER IN
THE NORTH AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE. WET-BULB
ZERO VALUES VERY HIGH...SO MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WITH A STRONGEST CELLS MAYBE GETTING QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AT BEST.

WILL RAISE THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO THE 40S-50S%
RANGE...BUT LEAVE THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE 20S-30S% RANGE.

WILL MAKE SLIGHT TWEAK TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  68  93  65  92 /  30  30  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  93  67  90  62  87 /  40  40  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       92  66  89  62  87 /  40  40  30  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              90  62  87  56  83 /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1112 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-121515-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1112 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011 /1012 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE SOUTH. SOME STORMS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT AS STRONG OVERALL.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MAINLY BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS. FOR HAIL SIZE...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTH
MAY APPROACH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEHIND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BRIEFLY OVER SOME PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

GM