Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
811 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
EAST OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT NAM12 SHOWS CAP MAY BE
STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST BUT DID NOT CHANGE
POPS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS NE LATER THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES STILL VERY WARM SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
FROM MCS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST HAS LOWERED
TEMPERATURES OVER NE TN AND SW VA. UPDATE ALREADY SENT.
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NW TO SE ORIENTED QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...WITH A
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS OVER AREA. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MOST OF EAST TN. UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER CONVECTION MOSTLY ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR TRI
THIS EVENING. STILL HAVE VCTS FOR KTRI NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-111000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1045 AM EDT (945 AM CDT) TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A GOLF BALL
(OR EVEN LARGER). IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

VAZ002-006-110145-
RUSSELL VA-WISE VA-
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CITY OF NORTON...WISE AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 916 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRUNDY TO 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITESBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES
BETWEEN 930 PM AND 945 PM.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

DGS