River Flood Warning 15, NWS Morristown, TN

687 
WGUS84 KMRX 061351
FLSMRX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN, TN 
951 AM EDT WED APR 6 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS ...

  CLINCH RIVER ABOVE TAZEWELL TN AFFECTING CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER AND 
  HANCOCK COUNTIES

&&

TNC025-057-067-061421-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110408T0800Z/
/TAZT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
951 AM EDT WED APR 6 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE CLINCH RIVER ABOVE TAZEWELL TN.
* AT 8:30 AM THIS MORNING...THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PASTURE LAND NEAR GRISSOM ISLAND BEGINS.
  THE CITY OF TAZEWELL, TENNESSEE IS NOT AFFECTED BY FLOODING OF THE
  CLINCH RIVER.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING. TEMPERATURES AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
CWA AS RIDGE BUILDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND.
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY GOING AS IS. WILL ADD PATCHY FROST TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
STILL DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THE LATTER PERIODS. WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG CLOSER TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH....AND SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY ALSO MOVE
ACROSS...SO WILL HAVE TO CARRY LOW POPS LATE THU NIGHT THOUGH SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.  SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS GFS...ESPECIALLY 12Z RUN...FASTER THAN MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE AND BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL LEAN TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE CONSENSUS MONDAY TIMING...BUT WILL NEED
CHANCE POPS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  WILL GO DRY TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             35  70  44  78  55 /   0   0  10   0  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  35  68  44  75  54 /   0   0  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  68  43  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  68  38  75  46 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HANCOCK...HAWKINS...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST
     GREENE...SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

GH/GH/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
507 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-060915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
507 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011 /407 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT TO
8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
STORMS JUST YET.

THUS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TG