Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Morristown, TN

Anderson County, TN, Blount County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1105 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL EAST TN...WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALING AN MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM KY. AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THUS...WILL PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL EAST TN...NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THINK THIS MAY BE THE BEST PLACE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO RAISE
POPS...TO LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE...AND TO MENTION THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   92  68  97  71  96 /  40  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     88  68  94  69  94 /  60  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN             87  68  94  69  94 /  60  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    84  64  91  65  93 /  80  60  20  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANDERSON...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HANCOCK...
     HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MORGAN...NW
     BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST
     COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
     SULLIVAN...UNICOI...UNION...WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&

DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
343 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-200745-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
343 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011 /243 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN A
WESTERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TODAY.

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