Alert archive / Minnesota / Winter Weather Advisories in 2011

Winter Weather Advisory 39, NWS Twin Cities, MN

November 18, 201125 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this winter weather advisory at Nov 18, 2011, 2:50 PM CST for 25 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Nov 19, 2011, 6:00 AM CST. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 18, 2011, 2:50 PM CST (20:50 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 19, 2011, 6:00 AM CST
Expired
Nov 19, 2011, 9:00 PM CST
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Twin Cities, MN
All 34 counties

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Washington County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2011-11-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2011-11-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 232 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1519 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
232 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
338 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

676 
WWUS43 KMPX 182050
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
250 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY. 

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
MONTEVIDEO...TO ST CLOUD...AND RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE. LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM MORRIS
TO ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA.

A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM STORM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHARP LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOWFALL...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DUE TO STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>045-047>059-064-WIZ014>016-190500-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.111119T1200Z-111120T0300Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...
AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH
250 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY.

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 3
  AM...AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE MORNING. CENTRAL AND
  EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BANDS OF SNOWFALL DEVELOP
  BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXPECTING
  THE SNOWFALL AFTER 12 NOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SNOWFALL WILL
  BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THEN IN
  CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS WEST
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES FROM MORRIS TO
  ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

JLT/JPR
6 follow-up statements
366 
WWUS43 KMPX 182103 CCA
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
302 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY. 

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
MONTEVIDEO...TO ST CLOUD...AND RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE. LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM MORRIS
TO ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA.

A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM STORM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOWFALL...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DUE TO STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>045-047>059-064-WIZ014>016-190530-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.111119T1200Z-111120T0300Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...
AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH
302 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY.

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 3
  AM...AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE MORNING. CENTRAL AND
  EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BANDS OF SNOWFALL DEVELOP
  BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXPECTING
  THE SNOWFALL AFTER 12 NOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SNOWFALL WILL
  BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THEN IN
  CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS WEST
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES FROM MORRIS TO
  ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

JLT/JPR
162 
WWUS43 KMPX 190243
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
843 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON...

.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
NORTH OF MONTEVIDEO...TO ST CLOUD...AND RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES FROM MORRIS TO
ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA.

A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DUE TO STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>045-047>059-064-WIZ014>016-191045-
/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.111119T1200Z-111120T0300Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...
AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH
843 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM
CST SATURDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY. 

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 3 
  AM...AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE MORNING. CENTRAL 
  AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BANDS OF SNOWFALL 
  DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  EXPECTING THE SNOWFALL AFTER 12 NOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...
  SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  AND THEN IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNSET...
  THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY NEAR 5 INCHES FROM MORRIS TO
  ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$
255 
WWUS43 KMPX 190944
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON...

.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA NEAR SUNRISE. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING...AREAS IN EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO...TO ST CLOUD...TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN.
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
BENSON...TO NEAR ST. CLOUD...TO MORA.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL
DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUE TO STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>045-047>059-064-WIZ014>016-191745-
/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.111119T1200Z-111120T0300Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...
AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH
344 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
  AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE MORNING. CENTRAL AND EAST
  CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BANDS OF SNOW MOVE IN LATE THIS
  MORNING...WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXPECTING THE SNOWFALL
  AFTER 12 NOON. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY NEAR 5 INCHES FROM BENSON TO ST.
  CLOUD TO MORA MINNESOTA.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$
255 
WWUS43 KMPX 191735
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER IN CHANHASSEN HAD UPGRADED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES ARE
LIKELY BEFORE 600 PM THIS EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS
AND HAZARDOUS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF WEST
CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO...TO ST CLOUD...TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN.
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
MADISON...BENSON AND APPLETON AREAS.

THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND DIMINISH TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. 

MNZ054>056-200000-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-111120T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0016.111119T1735Z-111120T0000Z/
LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO
1135 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
  THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES
  IN THE BENSON...APPLETON AND MADISON AREAS. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE WARNED
AREA. TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AND TREACHEROUS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD
ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. 

&&

$$

MNZ041>045-047>053-057>059-064-WIZ014>016-200145-
/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-111120T0300Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...WILLMAR...
LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH
1135 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
  MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
  BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 


* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE 
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY NEAR 5 INCHES FROM BENSON TO ST. 
  CLOUD TO MORA MINNESOTA. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$
477 
WWUS43 KMPX 192056
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT.
THIS INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND EAU CLAIRE. A BAND OF
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE COURSE OF 3 TO 4 HOURS. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ST. CLOUD EAST TOWARD
CAMBRIDGE AND ACROSS THE US 8 CORRIDOR IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
IN OPEN AREAS THROUGH 8 PM.

THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND DIMINISH TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

MNZ054>056-200000-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-111120T0000Z/
LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO
256 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
  COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED 
  IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AROUND 7 
  INCHES IN THE BENSON...APPLETON AND MADISON AREAS. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME HAZARDOUS AND TREACHEROUS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW PLENTY
OF TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION.

&&

$$

MNZ060>063-070-078-WIZ023>028-200300-
/O.EXA.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-111120T0300Z/
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...
STILLWATER...BURNSVILLE...RED WING...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...
RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...
PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
256 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
  MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL 
  BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE 
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY NEAR 5 INCHES FROM BENSON TO ST. 
  CLOUD TO MORA MINNESOTA. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

MNZ041-047-048-064-200000-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-111120T0000Z/
DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...
GRANITE FALLS
256 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...

* TIMING...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM
  WEST TO EAST. 

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES ACROSS
  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

MNZ042>045-049>053-057>059-WIZ014>016-200300-
/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-111120T0300Z/
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS...
PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...
CENTER CITY...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...AMERY...
BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH
256 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM
  WEST TO EAST. 

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES ACROSS
  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$
824 
WWUS43 KMPX 200306
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
906 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

MNZ042>045-049>053-057>063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-200415-
/O.EXP.KMPX.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-111120T0300Z/
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
DAKOTA-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS...
PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...
CENTER CITY...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...BURNSVILLE...RED WING...AMERY...
BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...
NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...
DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
906 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

MOTORISTS ARE STILL URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION...INCLUDING
TRAVELING AT REDUCED SPEEDS AND ALLOWING EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN
VEHICLES...AS ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIPPERY.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Nov 18, 2:05 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 18, 2:05 PM CST, 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
205 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL AREA OF
-SN...JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS AREA WAS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE AREA OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS AREA OF -SN WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE OF THE AREA BY 00-03Z...WITH
THE BIGGER SNOW EVENT MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SD/NE BY MIDNIGHT.

A FEW WEATHER ITEMS HAVE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE FASTER NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE STRONG WSW/SW
FLOW ALOFT WHICH TAKES THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY THRU THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT CHG IS IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH DEALS WITH THE ONSET OF -SN OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE AMPLE
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ACROSS MN THIS
AFTN...WILL TREND TOWARD A MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO.
THEREFORE...AREAS IN WC MN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FLURRIES
DEVELOPING AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH -SN...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
12Z.

AS WILL PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
STRONG FORCING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WC MN...THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...WITH A FAST
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE E/NE BY THE LATE
AFTN IN WC WI. TIMING AND SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BE KEY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH
THE MAXIMIZED DENTRITIC LAYER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
MODELS AND MOISTURE VARIABLES/LIFT...THERE WILL BE A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS WC MN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH A QUICK E/NE PROJECTORY ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY THE
EARLY AFTN. CURRENT WX GRIDS HAVE A BAND OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM NEAR MONTEVIDEO IN WC MN...EASTWARD TOWARD ELK RIVER
OR THE FAR NW TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...TO NORTH OF RICE LAKE WI.
THIS IS WHERE AN WINTER WX ADV WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...AND MAINLY DUE TO POOR LIFT/SATURATION IN THE
FAVORED DENTRITIC ZONE...AN AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...WITH LITTLE OR NONE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF REDWOOD
FALLS...TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TWIN CITIES...TO LADYSMITH
WI. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR MORRIS TO
ALEXANDRIA TO LITTLE FALLS MN...WHERE LOCALLY 6 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MN RIVER VALLEY...LT
RAIN...MIXED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS. HOWEVER...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SHORT TERM DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS NEAR THE SFC. THIS AREA
WILL ALSO BE THE LAST IN TERMS OF CHG OVER TO -SN BY THE MID/LATE
AFTN HRS WHICH WILL KEEP ANY TYPE OF SNOWFALL AMTS TO A MINIMUM.
LINGERING -SN DURING THE EVENING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EC MN AND WC
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 9 PM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
AIR...WE WILL RETURN TO A MILDER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER AK AND INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL SUPPORT A MILD TREND FOR OUR AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME HINTS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A SYSTEM LIFTING NE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP FRIDAY
/DAY7/ DRY FOR NOW...AND THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE MILD ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. ..JLT/JPR..

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON
AVIATION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS INITIAL PERIOD. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH IOWA INTO WISCONSIN...PUTTING MUCH OF
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE BEST AREAS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FIRST...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. WESTERN SITES WILL SEE THESE CONDITIONS
IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...NEW RICHMOND AND EAU CLAIRE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AS THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. MSP IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY...BUT MORE DETAILS
REGARDING MSP WILL BE IN THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THIS DISCUSSION.

THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
SNOW...WILL SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. AXN AND
STC WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS INITIAL BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN PRODUCING SNOWFALL PRIOR TO 18Z AT THOSE SITES. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN AXN SEEING SNOWFALL FROM THE INITIAL BAND...SO BEGAN
SNOWFALL AT 15Z THERE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY
INCREASES QUICKLY DURING THE ONSET. DELAYED THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL
AT STC UNTIL 16Z...AND BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS AS THE
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS AXN
INITIALLY. IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
STC...BUT THAT IS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
SOUTH...RWF SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL BAND OF
SNOWFALL...WHICH MEANT NO SNOW WAS MENTIONED IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE
LOW APPROACHES.

MSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE
LOW APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE METRO DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS. SINCE THIS TAF SITE HAS A 30 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...DID INTRODUCE SNOWFALL WITH IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH FALLING SNOW AND THE
INCREASING WINDS...VSBYS MAY FALL EVEN FURTHER FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JLT/SPD
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 18, 12:23 PM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1223 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1223 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A BAND OF WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME...AREAS NEAR A LINE FROM MORRIS TO LITTLE FALLS/ST. CLOUD TO
HAYWARD ARE IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME ON SATURDAY...EVEN SWITCHING TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE AT TIMES
SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE MUCH
LESS SOUTH OF THE LINE DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND SNOWFALL OBSERVERS ARE URGED TO BEGIN REPORTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in Minnesota, 2011Winter Weather Advisories in Wisconsin, 2011Every winter weather advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.