Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

00Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW...

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRE-FRONTAL HEATING RAMPING UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. SPC SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z ACROSS MUCH OF FA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COOL FRONT ENTERING FAR WESTERN MN. COOL FRONT ANTICIPATED
TO TREK TO NEAR A LINE FROM NORTHEAST WI TO SE IA BY SAT/12Z.
CAP ANTICIPATED TO BREAK DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF MN...WITH CONTINUE BREAKDOWN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY 02/06Z. HRRR NOT BAD WITH
CURRENT PLACEMENT OF T-STORMS ENTERING WEST CENTRAL MN. IT DEPICTS
AREA OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR HINCKLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY 01Z.
GFS40 STILL HANDLING SYSTEM TIMING AND INTENSITY WELL...WITH BEST
THETA E ADVECTION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN...TO TWIN CITIES
TO JUST SW OF DULUTH BY 00Z. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
COMBINED WITH MPX PCPN WATER OF 1.65 THIS MORNING AND AFTN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S POINTS TO PRODIGIOUS WATER PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS SAME REGION PRIOR TO 03Z. ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTLY OF AVAILABLE JOULES...MODERATE LI'S AND MID
LEVEL CAPE SUPPORTING A MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENT. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR THE WEAK SFC CYCLONE AS IT PROCEEDS
NORTHEAST OUT OF SW MN THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS THE FA SHORTLY AFTER
02/06Z. LOOKS LIKE A STELLAR WEEKEND SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BIG SFC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OVER MN AND WI SATURDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM TONIGHT
STORMS SHOULD SET UP AREA OF FOG BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH OF
FA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CONTINUED AGREEMENT LAST FEW
RUNS BETWEEN NAM AND GFS40. FINAL MENTION OF NOTE INVOLVES ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AS 50H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL ALLOW PROGRESSION OF
FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTHERN U.S. FROM MID PACIFIC INTO
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IN AND AROUND
THE KRWF AND KSTC TAF SITES AND EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR KMSP AND KRNH IN THE NEAR TERM. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH MN WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM AREAS ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY
IN CENTRAL MN. THE COMPLEX THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH KSTC PRODUCED
WINDS THAT GUSTED TO 47 KNOTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/2SM.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT KRWF WITH HIGHER WINDS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST WE CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT KMSP BY 0030Z AND KRNH BY 0100Z. DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE WINDS IN THE 50 KT RANGE AT EITHER SITE BUT 35 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME OR LOWER IF THE CORE OF THE THUNDERSTORM PASSES RIGHT OVER
THE TAF LOCATION. DO NOT EXPECT THAT. CONVECTION SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO PICK UP SPEED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z AND THEN ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FINISHED. A FEW MODELS HOLD ON TO
PRECIPITATION TIL 09Z BUT BELIEVE THAT IS OVER DONE.

AFTER 06Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR ACTIVITY WILL BE
BEFORE 02Z. EXPECT GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH 35 KTS.
SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A GUST TO 50 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO 3SM WITH THE THUNDERSTORM. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY FROM 02Z TO 0330Z. A FEW OF THE MODEL HAVE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 09Z BUT THAT DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE 4TH.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
     CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-ISANTI-LE SUEUR-
     RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HENNEPIN-
     RAMSEY.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

AJZ/DRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
456 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-022200-
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-
RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-NICOLLET-
LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
456 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM MORA TO CARVER TO ST JAMES PRIOR TO 7 PM. AFTER 7 PM THE ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST EAST OF THIS LINE...INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKY WARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-074-082-091-022200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-LAC QUI PARLE-
SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
BROWN-WATONWAN-MARTIN-
456 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MORA TO CARVER TO ST JAMES
PRIOR TO 7 PM. AFTER 7 PM THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST EAST OF THIS LINE...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST LOUIS PARK           44.95N 93.36W
07/01/2011                   HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AROUND HIGHWAY 169...4 MILES SOUTH OF 49TH
            AVE. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUTCHINSON              44.89N 94.37W
07/01/2011                   MCLEOD             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 FOOT TREE DOWN. POWER OUTAGES. ROOF OF VET HOSPITAL.

&&

JALLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTICELLO              45.30N 93.80W
07/01/2011  M56 MPH          WRIGHT             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JALLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELK RIVER               45.33N 93.57W
07/01/2011                   SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN OVER ROADS IN TOWN

&&

JALLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N BIG LAKE            45.45N 93.75W
07/01/2011                   SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FOOT TREES DOWN. DAMAGE IS IN THE TOWN OF ORROCK.

&&

JALLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ053-063-020045-
CHISAGO-WASHINGTON-
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CHISAGO AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

AT 708 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WYOMING TO HUGO. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HUGO.
  LINDSTROM.
  SCANDIA.
  SHAFER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
FUNNEL CLOUDS AND SOME ROTATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4546 9271 4543 9265 4537 9269 4536 9270
      4531 9272 4528 9277 4523 9276 4521 9277
      4512 9298 4512 9302 4529 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 233DEG 47KT 4533 9295 4515 9295