Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED UPPER TROF FROM E NODAK INTO SE MN WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE
TDY. LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS EC MN INTO WI
WHICH IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL ON 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. WC WI
WHICH HAS ONLY SEEN AROUND .25 RAIN THUS FAR SHOULD PICK UP SOME .50
TOTALS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT OF SW
MN...BUT EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX IN SW NODAK DRIVES ACROSS S MN. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PRETTY STEEP WITH 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM AS
COLD POCKET OF B16C 500 MB TEMPS DROPS INTO AREA. WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AREAS SW OF MN RIVER SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
GET INTO THE MID 70S...BUT MID 60S SHOULD BE ABOUT IT IN WI ZONES.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER WI ZONES THRU THE EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.  MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY IN THE NE WI ZONES WHERE SOME SOME UPPER TROFFING STILL
PRESENT. RIDGING BUILDING INTO REMAINING AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY
THURSDAY.

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK IN WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN SHAPING UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALREADY RETURN TO SW 1/2 OF AREA ON FRIDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH NEAR A WARM
FRONT ACROSS S IA AT LEAST THRU SATURDAY...BUT AS UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS COULD LIFT INTO AREA LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

IFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS IN FAR EASTERN MN CAN EXPECT THE
IFR CONDITIONS TO CLEAR BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW STRATUS...TOWERING CUMULUS AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING WHERE SUNSHINE IS BREAKING OUT. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
GREAT WITH THE SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE THE
LAST TO CLEAR THE STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE TRENDED THE TAF
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS VERY PESSIMISTIC AND SEEMS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE.

KMSP...ITS BARELY 18Z AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRPORT IS ALREADY
TRYING TO GET ABOVE 1000FT. THIS IS A GOOD SIGN...BUT EXPECT SUB
1700FT CEILINGS TO LINGER A COUPLE HOURS LONGER. THE SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AIRPORT.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AT THE AIRPORT IS PRETTY LOW...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT TO THE METRO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE
WIND...AND GRADUALLY VEER WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

BAP/CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161815-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
112 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO
SUPPORT A BEST CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
152 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

MNZ056-057-065-151945-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-RENVILLE-
152 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

AT 148 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PRINSBURG. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PRINSBURG.
  BLOMKEST.
  OLIVIA.
  BIRD ISLAND.

LAT...LON 4491 9477 4465 9482 4484 9530 4505 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 295DEG 18KT 4492 9513