Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
138 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS IA/SD/S MN EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLEX IN
SD/FAR SW MN HAS SOME INDICATION OF A NE TRAJECTORY ACROSS S...EC
MN BY MORNING. HOWEVER...INCREASING ELEVATED CAP WILL EVENTUALLY
WIN OVER BY MORNING AS THE MAIN CONVECTION MOVES N/NE ACROSS
CENTRAL/N MN.

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGERING THRU 15Z-18Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF N/NE FA...WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS IF WE NEED A MORNING POP/WX GROUP. ONCE THE CAPPING
INVERSION TAKES OVER...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING
THAT ANY TYPE OF TSRA/SHRA DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FA. BEST BET IS TO
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR W...AND HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3Z.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST
LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...SO WILL LIKELY STICK WITH CURRENT POPS/WX
GRIDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

AS THE CONVECTION MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS E MN...IT WILL LIKELY
BUMP INTO THE DRIER MID LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED CAP. BUT WITH THE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST 30-60%
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AFTER 06Z-09Z.

SVR WX PARAMETERS AND LATEST SPC DAY 1 HAS A MODERATE RISK OF SVR
TSRA ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT MORNING HWO ON
THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER TO THE EAST...DIURNAL AFFECTS WILL LEAD TO
LESS CHC OF SVR WX. BUT...DUE TO THE STRONG WNDS AT MID
LEVELS...AN INCREASING CHC OF WND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE AS THE
COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AFT TUE
MORNING...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE/SHRA TO THE EAST...A BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MEAN UPPER FLOW AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE U.S. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT THIS RIDGE
IS BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH
LEADS TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION LIKELY IN THE MIDWEST. HOW
FAR NORTH THIS CAP MOVES WILL DETERMINE THE AMT OF CONVECTION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE BEST CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THU...WITH AN INCREASING TREND OF LESS
CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN/NORTHERN EXTEND OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR
A CHG...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH
SOME IFR IN SOUTHERN MN WITH DRIZZLE. WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO TAF SITES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR IFR
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS TO THE TAFS.

OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDER. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS SUCH THAT
THERE MAY WELL BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DURING THE NEXT SIX
HOURS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THROUGH 10Z AND HAVE GENERALLY CONFINED
THUNDER TO THAT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MEDIUM.

LAST MATTER IS STRONG SSE WIND ON MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS AT AXN AND RWF. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME 35 KNOTS AT TIMES IN WRN
MN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KMSP...
1500-2000 FOOT CEILINGS HAVE ARRIVED ALONG WITH SCATTERED STORMS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS BUT THAT WILL MAINLY BE
IF DRIZZLE BECOMES WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONFINED THUNDER TO 06Z-08Z
WITH FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION. THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED IF
STORMS IN SE SD HOLD TOGETHER. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JLT/TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING.
THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
EVENING.

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

WIZ015-016-300830-
BARRON-RUSK-
243 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AT 239 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HILLSDALE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BARRON.
  CAMERON.
  CANTON.
  HAUGEN.
  BRILL.
  MIKANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4563 9193 4564 9122 4532 9156 4532 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 230DEG 31KT 4536 9185

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

MNZ041-047-048-300900-
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEVENS-
317 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AT 316 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STARBUCK. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CYRUS.
  STARBUCK.
  KENSINGTON.
  LOWRY.
  HOLMES.
  FORADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4598 9575 4599 9515 4578 9515 4552 9544
      4552 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 217DEG 39KT 4560 9560