Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON... SO THE DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED.
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE... AND IT
IS OBVIOUSLY ONGOING WITH THE TORNADO WATCH AND A NUMBER OF
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... JUST AS DEEP AND LOW
LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREAD THE SAME AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 50KT IS SUPPORTING THE SUPERCELL MODE... WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF
30KT ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES... ALONG WITH VERY LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. THESE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PROGRESS NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD THEN SEE DRIER AIR WORK IN FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT SO
KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT. BEYOND TODAY... UTILIZED A BLEND
OF THE GOING FORECAST AND THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM... THEN STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID... THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WE MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY... BUT ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL LINGERS OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF PCPN
IN THE FORECAST... SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING. BY MONDAY NIGHT...
HOWEVER... THINGS REALLY LOOK TO DRY OUT... AND RIDGING THEN LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... A WAVE IS PROGGED TO RIPPLE
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY... SO INCLUDED
SOME CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTH. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKING TO HOLD ON THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER BY FRIDAY... BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS... SO KEPT THINGS DRY AT
THIS POINT... BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME POSSIBILITY OF
PCPN NEEDS TO BE INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WILL BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 18Z
STRETCHED FROM SFC LOW NEAR RWF ALONG THE MN RIVER TO AEL. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CUTS OFF SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST. OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN. GFSLAMP AND SREF PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS
AND LOWER QUITE HIGH...SO LOOKS LIKELY THAT BY SUNRISE MONDAY ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR.

KMSP...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS THRU 21Z.
AFTER THAT...IT IS A MATTER ON WAITING ON MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
LIKELY IN THE 05Z TO 09Z WINDOW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

MNZ051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-231815-
SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-
GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-
EAU CLAIRE-
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH 8 PM...WITH ISOLATED MAINLY NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-231815-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LINDSTROM               45.39N 92.84W
05/22/2011                   CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHALLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

WIZ025>028-222130-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AT 338 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR DURAND AS WELL AS NEAR EAU CLAIRE. THE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DURAND.
  ROCK FALLS.
  CARYVILLE.
  ELK MOUND.
  EAU CLAIRE.
  LAKE HALLIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4461 9204 4468 9198 4468 9213 4512 9214
      4513 9216 4521 9216 4521 9167 4512 9164
      4522 9157 4522 9155 4528 9152 4529 9094
      4460 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 225DEG 39KT 4465 9185

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