Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION WITH A
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS WEAK AND EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. THEREFORE
THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE WI CWA
TO PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MN.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
RISING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWS/HIGHS CLIMBING FROM 2-5 DEGREES PER
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING US BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON
TODAY'S 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP CONSIDERABLY SHOWING
A TREND TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS RESULTS IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS IS
STILL ALONG WAYS OFF...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEK WITH SNOW MELT PICKING UP
ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SNOW LOSS
PREDICTOR SHOWING FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCH DROP EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TWO MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE SECOND
IS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHEST FOR THE QUARTER INCH OVER EASTERN SD
AND NW IA. HENCE...NOT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR
FA. THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY CONTAIN
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE
DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THRU THIS EVENING.
EVENTUALLY A STORM SYSTEM NEAR RAP WILL DRIFT TO THE SE AND
INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MAINLY FOR RWF/ LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EVEN FOR RWF. WNDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/SE THRU THE PERIOD AND MAINLY UNDER 8 KTS.
A FEW HIGHER WND SPDS ARND 10 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT RWF WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER THE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT.

MSP...NO AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LIGHT E/SE WNDS WILL BACK TO THE
E/ENE TONIGHT...THEN BACK TO THE SE BY MORNING. SPDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 8 KTS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 9-11K BY 15Z/29.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/RAH/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
158 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO SEE FLOODING...SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RAH