Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Twin Cities, MN

168 
WGUS83 KMPX 190238
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
938 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

MNC139-190251-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110319T0230Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTT MN-
938 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

OFFICIALS IN THE AREA INDICATED THE ICE JAM ON SAND CREEK HAS GIVEN 
WAY... AND WATER LEVELS ALONG THE CREEK ARE RECEDING.

ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING 
DAYS AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LARGER 
RIVERS... SO KEEP APPRISED OF CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
ACTION SHOULD RIVER LEVELS IN THE AREA RISE AGAIN.

LAT...LON 4469 9355 4465 9356 4461 9365 4466 9368
      4470 9363 4472 9362

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011...UPDATE FOR AVIATION AFD

.DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE CLOUDINESS DISSIPATING FROM NW TO SE TODAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN COVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THE NIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY FOR EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/GEM/ECMWF PRETTY SIMILAR WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE GFS THE OUTLIER WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME OF
THIS CAN BE TIED TO A MUCH STRONGER COUPLED JET OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THE GFS. TWO PROBLEMS ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS WITH THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE BLENDED PW IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS IS WELL OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. SECONDLY...IT BECOMES RATHER UNSTABLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM AND
ECMWF FOR THE QPF GRIDS YIELDED AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER WITH ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR WITH A HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI. THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

DRY WEATHER WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS ANOTHER STORY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT MUCH OF IT MAY FALL AS SNOW WHICH
MEANS IT COULD END UP BEING A PRETTY BIG SNOW EVENT. MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF HERE WHILE A MID LEVEL LOW SCOOTS
ACROSS THE FA FROM SD. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL MANY DAYS AWAY BUT IT
IS ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE RIVER
FLOODING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SNOW MELT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TODAY OVER THAT OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS DUE TO A COLDER DAY AHEAD. HOWEVER...SNOW MELT WILL
ACCELERATE AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR AND
RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE FRIEDLEIN SNOW MELT PREDICTOR SHOWS
ABOUT A 1.5 INCH LOSS TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY WITH
NEARLY 3 INCHES ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER AS WELL
AS EAST THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. THIS SHOULD JUST ABOUT DO AWAY WITH
THE SNOW COVER IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES PRIOR TO 18Z. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR DISSIPATING
CLOUD DECK. MODERATE NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES INTO EARLY AFTN...WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXING AFTER 20Z ALL AIRPORT SITES.

KMSP...STRATOCU CIGS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH SLIGHT RISE
EXPECTED IN MVFR BASES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FAIRLY ROBUST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MODERATE NW WINDS INTO EARLY AFTN.
ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM CLOUD BASES SLIGHTLY LOWER...ANTICIPATE MID MORNING
HEATING TO CIRCUMVENT SIMILAR VALUES NEAR KMSP. GFS40 INDICATING
ZONAL FLOW INTO SATURDAY...THUS HAVE INCLUDED CIRRUS CEILING BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. NW WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/AZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
190915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
410 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE...MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ICE
JAMS WILL ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SNOW MELT WILL ACCELERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR
AND RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...AS WELL AS RIVERS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ICE JAMS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RAH