Areal Flood Advisory 46, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS
/THUNDERSTORMS AS NORTH DAKOTA COMPLEX MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS
MORNING. MODELS SHOW VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS MOST PESSIMISTIC
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING/DEVELOPING PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIEING THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN MN. WILL FOLLOW
MORE OF A NAM.ECMWF/SREF SOLUTION TODAY...AS BELIEVE GFS MAY HAVE A
BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH THE MCS COMING INTO THE AREA. WILL
KEEP POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. STILL HAVE A BIT OF
MLCAPE OVER THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. OUTFLOW FROM MORNING COMPLEX MAY
LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OVER NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME 90
DEGREE READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS MAY BY HIGHEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MN...NEAR CONFLUENCE OF BOUNDARIES. WILL EXPAND THE
HEAT ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH/NORTHEAST CWA TODAY. STARTING TIME LOOKS OK...BUT ENDING TIME
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A BIT IF CONVECTION DOESNT FIRE EARLY
EVENING.

SAID CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARIES
CLOSE TO NORTHER CWA AND OVER EASTER DAKOTAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HIGHLY CAPPED AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUMP TEMPS TO
MID 90S AT LEAST...IN THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. SOME CONCERN
ON HOW MUCH/IF CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG SURFACE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTHEAST AS
THIS AREA APPEARS BEST FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
TREND OF DRYING THE AREA OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DRIVE WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM DON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEBRASKA LATER
WED AND FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT STRONGER AS WELL.
WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE THU/THU
NIGHT PERIOD. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES LATER IF ECMWF TREND
CONTINUES.

LONGER TERM INCLUDES A POSSIBLE TRANSITION IN FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DEEPER PENETRATION OF WEST COAST
SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WESTERN RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PARTS OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ONGOING OVER
WESTERN MN THIS MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN MN...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN
CITIES.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO 1500-2500 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY
BELOW 3 MILES IN HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 4000 FEET BY MID AFTERNOON.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST LIFT AND
FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF MN AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE CLOSE TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

MSP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
WEST OF KMSP. CEILINGS LOWERING BRIEFLY TO AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANOKA-     BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

&&

DWE/JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
021200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
527 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE STORMS THIS MORNING...IS
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS...ST CLOUD...TO NEAR
REDWOOD FALLS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 105-100
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SEE THE
LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE CONCERNING THE HEAT ADVISORY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA FIRST...THEN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE FOUND FARTHER EAST HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
738 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S EVANSVILLE          45.89N 95.68W
08/01/2011                   DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN. STREET SIGN BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
806 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRANDON                 45.97N 95.60W
08/01/2011                   DOUGLAS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A GROVE OF TREES BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN COUNTY ROAD 114 AND
            COUNTY ROAD 4.

&&

JVM