Areal Flood Advisory 1, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WAS OCCURRING OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS IF THEY
FORM...SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MN AND DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE THICKNESS RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS WHETHER HIGH A LITTLE OVER 12000 FEET AGL.

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD.  A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVIN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE APPARENT
SOLUTION WITH GFS MODEL MORE WETTER THAN EUROPEAN MODEL. CONFIDENT
IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY...LOW.  BOTH MODEL AGREE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONVECTION CONCERNS KSTC...KMSP...KRNH..AND MAYBE KEAU LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF COVECTION APPCHG KSTC AND
KMSP...BUT NO RAPID GROWTH YET. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT KSTC
WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS AND THEN VCTS FOR KMSP. A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THE LINE MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE VCTS AT KEAU FOR NOW. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING DOWN TO 2SM IN KEAU. COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST
OF MOST OF TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA...MAINLY IN THE
KEAU...KRNH AND KMSP AREAS.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES...WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDING AFTER THE DRYLINE
PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT TSRA TO REKINDLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...THE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED IN AND NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION...A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

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