Winter Weather Advisory 3, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AFTER GETTING A MORE THOROUGH LOOK
AT THE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE...OUR LATEST THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE
BY THE EVENING SHIFT YESTERDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALL TRENDED
TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES INTO
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES LOWERING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH 09Z
THURSDAY. THIS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO
MS...TO MILLRY AL...TO GROVE HILL AL...TO CAMDEN AL. AS A RESULT...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE AREA
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LATEST SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW TO BE AS HIGH AS 60
PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF WAYNE...THE REMAINDER
OF CHOCTAW AND INTO NORTHERN CLARKE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...SHOWS 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING FROM 00-06Z ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...IN CONCERT WITH A SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SLANTWISE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE FAR NORTH CWA...ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF SUCH AS BAND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICKER COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO
AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. AS NOTED EARLIER...WHEN TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT LOSING SOME PRECIP TO COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 10:1 SNOW RATIOS GIVEN DEEP ISOTHERMAL
PROFILES...SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. AS STATED ABOVE...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO THE
INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN
SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SNOWS PRIMARILY
ACCUMULATING ON ELEVATED SURFACES...GRASSY AREAS ETC. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE ADVISED AREA TONIGHT
HOWEVER...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS WE FINE
TUNE THE FCST LATER TODAY...IF IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT A BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...A PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREA MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR IN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN ALABAMA...EXPECT A COLD
RAIN (WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLY MIXED IN) WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NO PCPN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
DO EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  12/DS

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THURSDAY STARTS WITH THE SECOND OF A
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES PUSHING EAST OVER THE MID MISS/TENN RIVER
VALLEYS...WITH A SURFACE CIRCULATION/CLOSED SURFACE LOW S/SSW OF AQQ.
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE MEASURABLE PRECIP HAVING PUSHED
TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW/CIRCULATION EAST AND
ALLOWING COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO BE PUSHED/DRAWN SOUTH. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL IN THE PICTURE...SO TO SPEAK...AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY...AND A GOOD COLD PUSH...HAVE PUT SOME FLURRIES IN FOR AREAS
EAST OF 65 AND NORTH OF THE FL/AL STATE LINE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
THURSDAY. MAY HAVE TO EXPEND THIS DEPENDING ON SPEED/POSITION OF THE
UPPER ENERGY AND FOLLOWING COLD SURGE.

THE COLD AIR SHOWS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE COLD SURGE...WITH THE
ECMWF AND NAM ON THE WARM SIDE...ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE COLD END AND
THE OP GFS IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE OP GFS FOR TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS FEEL THAT ADDING ALL THE GUIDANCE TOGETHER FOR
AN EVEN BETTER ENSEMBLE WILL GIVE A BETTER RESULT. THE SPREAD
CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...GOING WITH THE OP
GFS/MAV SOLUTION FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE
TAIL END OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH
WHICH HAS BEEN DUG OVER THE EASTERN CONUS....SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS MEANS TEMPS MODERATING
TO NEAR SEASONAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITING THE
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. OP GFS/MEX AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT...SO SEE NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEPART FROM
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVED OVER THE FA OVER THE
WEEKEND HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER THE N-ERN GULF OF MEX. THIS MEANS
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. GFS IS ADVERTISING A
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY ESE OVER TX MONDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX TUESDAY...WITH A BARELY NOTICEABLE WIGGLE SHOWN IN THE
ECMWF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TO OVER THE EAST COAST AND
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN TEMPS MODERATING TO
ABOVE SEASONAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE COMING WEEK...ACCORDING
TO THE OP GFS/MEX...CLOSER TO...BUT STILL ABOVE WITH THE ENSEMBLES.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY E ACROSS NORTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS
AND PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z THU. WELL
INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. AT
THE TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD
RAIN. PCPN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
LIKELY ONLY BE REMAINING OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
06Z THU TO 18Z THU FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF WATERS...AM EXPECTING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TO REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES...AND THEN INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASSOVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL INTO THE COMING WEEK...AND
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY...DAYTIME RH LEVELS WILL
DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  34  46  25  53 /  20  80  10  00  00
PENSACOLA   54  38  48  30  55 /  10  80  20  00  00
DESTIN      54  40  50  34  55 /  10  80  20  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  36  45  24  53 /  10  80  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  56  29  40  22  49 /  20  80  10  00  00
CAMDEN      53  31  42  22  51 /  10  80  10  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  37  48  26  57 /  10  80  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAW...CLARKE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

12/16

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