Alert archive / Alabama / Winter Storm Watches in 2011

Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

January 7, 20119 counties in Alabama; Greene County, Perry County, Wayne County, Mississippi

NWS Mobile, AL issued this winter storm watch at Jan 7, 2011, 3:38 PM CST for 9 counties in Alabama; Greene County, Perry County, Wayne County, Mississippi. It took effect at Jan 9, 2011, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 7, 2011, 3:38 PM CST (21:38 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 9, 2011, 12:00 PM CST
Expired
Jan 9, 2011, 6:36 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL

Counties Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Greene County, MS, Perry County, MS, Wayne County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2011-01-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2011-01-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 183 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1552 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
91 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
183 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
274 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

802 
WWUS44 KMOB 072138
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
INTO OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-080545-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
338 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GATHERING STRENGTH TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA
WILL MOVE IN ATOP A COLD DOME OF AIR ON SUNDAY THAT WILL ALREADY BE
IN PLACE WITHIN OUR REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A MIX
OF SLEET AND RAIN ONCE THE ONSET BEGINS JUST BEFORE NOON ON SUNDAY
WEST OF I-65. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN IS POSSIBLE EXCEPT A MIX OF SLEET AND
RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
INCREASE. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84.  AT THIS
TIME...AREAS SOUTH OF A WIGGINS TO CITRONELLE TO BREWTON TO ANDALUSIA
LINE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TREND HAS BEEN TO
ADJUST THIS FURTHER SOUTH.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ICING
COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE...ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS...FROM MID SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. TRYING TO
PINPOINT THE EXACT AREA OF ICING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL MUST BE CONVEYED DUE TO THE SERIOUS IMPACTS THAT ARISE
WHEN FROM ICING.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE WILL
BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE...
CREATING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
285 
WWUS44 KMOB 080528
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1128 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-081330-
/O.CON.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
1128 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AND MOVE
OVER A COLD DOME OF AIR ON SUNDAY.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT
AS A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN JUST BEFORE NOON SUNDAY...WEST OF I-65.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN IS POSSIBLE EXCEPT A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL.
A CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF A WIGGINS CITRONELLE
BREWTON ANDALUSIA LINE MAINLY RAIN. 

AT THIS TIME WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
ICING COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WIGGINS TO ANDALUSIA LINE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. TRYING TO PINPOINT THE EXACT AREA OF ICING IS
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXIST AND PLANS SHOULD BE MADE FOR
THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER AND ICY ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE
WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S BY
AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
037 
WWUS44 KMOB 081334
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
734 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-082145-
/O.CON.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
734 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND SEND
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER A COLD DOME OF AIR ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A MIX OF SLEET AND
RAIN JUST BEFORE NOON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY WEST OF I-65. A MIX OF SLEET
AND RAIN MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL. EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW ALONG A LINE FROM BUTLER TO CAMDEN DURING THE
EVENING...TRANSITIONING OVER TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF A WIGGINS CITRONELLE BREWTON ANDALUSIA
LINE WILL SEE MAINLY A COLD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
ICING COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WIGGINS TO ANDALUSIA LINE FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. TRYING TO PINPOINT THE EXACT AREA
OF ICING IS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXIST AND PLANS
SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER AND ICY ROADS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET NORTH OF A WIGGINS TO
ANDALUSIA LINE OF 1 INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GREENVILLE TO WAYNESBORO LINE.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE
WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S BY 
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
115 
WWUS44 KMOB 082143
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...

.A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE GENERATED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND OVERRUN A COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN. 

ALZ060-090600-
/O.EXA.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
COVINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP
343 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND
SEND A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER A COLD DOME OF AIR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A
MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
SLEET AND RAIN SPREADING EAST...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WAYNESBORO TO
BUTLER LINE.

PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL. PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINATELY BECOME FREEZING
RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO...GROVE HILL...TO
LUVERNE LINE...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME. BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY EVENING...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD
AS FAR SOUTH AS ANDALUSIA...EVERGREEN...CHATOM...AND NEW AUGUSTA AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
ICING COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM
WAYNESBORO...GROVE HILL...LUVERNE AND POINTS NORTH. TRYING TO PINPOINT
THE EXACT AREA OF ICING IS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXIST
AND PLANS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER AND ICY
ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH AND CONFINED GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO GREENVILLE LINE.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE
WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-090600-
/O.CON.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
343 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND
SEND A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER A COLD DOME OF AIR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A
MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN JUST BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY WEST
OF I-65...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN SPREADING
EAST...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH LATE 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A WAYNESBORO TO BUTLER LINE. 

PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL. PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINATELY BECOME FREEZING
RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO...GROVE HILL...TO
LUVERNE LINE...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME. BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY EVENING...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD
AS FAR SOUTH AS ANDALUSIA...EVERGREEN...CHATOM...AND NEW AUGUSTA AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
ICING COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM
WAYNESBORO...GROVE HILL...LUVERNE AND POINTS NORTH. TRYING TO PINPOINT
THE EXACT AREA OF ICING IS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXIST
AND PLANS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER AND ICY
ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH AND CONFINED GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO GREENVILLE LINE.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE
WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
903 
WWUS44 KMOB 090507
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1107 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALABAMA COAST. THE LOW STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTH...OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENT REDUCING THE
THREAT FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING
RAIN EXISTS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN.

ALZ051>058-060-MSZ067-075-076-091315-
/O.CON.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...
BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
1107 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN...POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
CHOCTAW COUNTY ALABAMA.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD EAST...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WAYNESBORO TO BUTLER LINE.

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT TO 
THE NORTH OF A LUVERNE TO WAYNESBORO LINE WITH A BAND OF FREEZING 
RAIN SOUTH TO NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY TO CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY. A 
NARROW BAND OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN JUST SOUTH BETWEEN WIGGINS AND 
ANDALUSIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE A
COLD RAIN WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GREATEST THREAT IS FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ICING
COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM
WAYNESBORO...GROVE HILL...LUVERNE AND POINTS NORTH. TRYING TO
PINPOINT THE EXACT AREA OF ICING REMAINS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL EXIST AND PLANS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF
POWER AND ICY ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS MUCH AS ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ONE
HALF INCH AND CONFINED GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO
GREENVILLE LINE.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE
WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
859 
WWUS44 KMOB 091236
WSWMOB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA
COAST. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH...OVERRUNNING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENT REDUCING THE
THREAT FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A JANICE MISSISSIPPI
TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA LINE. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN.

ALZ051-054-092045-
/O.UPG.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.IS.W.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL
636 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN AS EARLY
AS LATE THIS MORNING...BUT ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION INTO PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO
CAMDEN. 

THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A SIGNIFICANT ICING COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER
LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS MUCH AS
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SUCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN ALSO RESULT IN SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING 
TREE BRANCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
ONE HALF INCH.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE WILL
BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE
IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE
DANGER.

&&

$$

ALZ052-053-055>058-060-MSZ067-075-076-092045-
/O.UPG.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.WW.Y.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1800Z/
WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-COVINGTON-WAYNE-
PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...JACKSON...
THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...
GREENVILLE...LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ANDALUSIA...OPP...WAYNESBORO...
RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
636 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN...POSSIBLY 
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND SPREADING PARTS OF EXTREME WESTERN INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD EAST...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 IN
ALABAMA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION INTO PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A LUVERNE ALABAMA TO WAYNESBORO
MISSISSIPPI LINE...WITH FREEZING RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY JANICE 
MISSISSIPPI AND ANDALUSIA ALABAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF THE JANICE TO ANDALUSIA LINE SHOULD RECEIVE A COLD RAIN
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET 
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ONE HALF INCH OVER THE ADVISED AREA. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT SOME ICING COULD FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRUAL
CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE JANICE MISSISSIPPI TO
ANDALUSIA ALABAMA LINE. TRYING TO PINPOINT THE EXACT AREA OF ICING
REMAINS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXIST AND PLANS SHOULD BE
MADE FOR THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER AND ICY ROADS.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE WILL
BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 
40S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
SIDEWALKS...GRASSY AREAS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Jan 7, 11:40 AM CST, 3 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 7, 11:40 AM CST, 3 hours 58 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE (07/18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

************************PREVIOUS****************************

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A NICE WARM UP ON TAP TODAY AFTER
A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN MOST SPOTS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

.(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK...
INTENSITY AND TIMING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS OFF LA/MS/AL/NWFL
BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST THIS MORNING
IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE RIDGE
OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER AS THE COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LEADS
TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH AS
WE SAID IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...AFFECTING THE GULF COASTAL
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM...AND IS ALSO REMAINS CLOSE TO CURRENT HPC GRAPHICS.

EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY
MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERN LA COASTAL AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TO CROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN SMALL
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IS NOW SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE AREA...IN THE UPPER
20S MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ALTO DECK
AND A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER INTERIOR ZONES BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE WET BULB REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CURRENT FCST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO HAVE THIS
PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIQUID OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FCST AREA...AND A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVER NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

AS THE OVERRUNNING INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD...POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN
WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PCPN. OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING AN ELEVATED LAYER ALOFT FROM
ROUGHLY 675-900 MB WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAY...WITH ABOUT A 100 MB DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER BENEATH...WHILE
CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT HAVE THE SUBFREEZING LOW LEVEL
LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PCPN ON SUNDAY TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
AT LEAST MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT
THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE SLEET OR EVEN POSSIBLY FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES ON SUNDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MODEL SOUNDING TRENDS AS WE NEAR THE EVENT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GFS ELIMINATING THE LOW LEVEL SUBFREEZING LAYER OVER INTERIOR
ZONES BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERNMOST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO PURELY
LIQUID BY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH A NEED
TO STAY WITH A MIX INLAND DURING THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PCPN...BUT
WITH COLDER TEMPS NOW EXPECTED THAN FROM PREVIOUS FCST CYCLE...COULD
SEE SOME ACCRETION ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND BRIDGES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND...UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S FAR INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S
COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL HAVE CHALLENGES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
ON MONDAY...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS MOSTLY INDICATE A COLD LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
ZONES. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION 07/12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS
WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE WORST
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG WINDS AND HIGHS SEAS WILL BE SUNDAY. WINDS
DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WELL INLAND. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND HAVE
UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. MAINTAINED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME AREA ON SATURDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  39  56  32 /  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   63  41  57  33 /  00  00  05  20
DESTIN      62  44  55  34 /  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   63  33  54  27 /  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  64  33  53  28 /  00  00  00  30
CAMDEN      63  32  51  28 /  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   65  37  58  29 /  00  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 7, 5:45 AM CST, 9 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-081200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. WITH ATTENDANT
COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS CRITICAL. A TRACK FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF WILL RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 84 OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN...LIGHT SLEET
AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  RIGHT NOW
MEASURABLE SLEET OR SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT IF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGER OR TRACKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SITUATION COULD CHANGE.

TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84...A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE RATHER COOL OVER THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S AT THE COAST ON SUNDAY.

WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
CONCERNING THE STRENGTH... TIMING...AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY FOR HAZARDOUS WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA FOR WINTRY
WEATHER REPORTS.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 7, 3:42 PM CSTCoastal Flood WatchMOB42 hr
Jan 7, 3:42 PM CSTGale WatchMOB19 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Alabama, 2011Winter Storm Watches in Mississippi, 2011Every winter storm watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.