Special Marine Warning 95, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT]...LATEST VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. REGIONAL RADARS STILL DETECTING
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DUE TO STRENGTHENING COLD POOL
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
COLD POOL IS GETTING READY TO INTERSECT WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING SEA
BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570
HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...INCLUDING MOBILE
BAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT. LATEST ANALYSIS STILL HAS SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGING FROM 2400 TO 2800 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6C.
DECREASE IN STABILITY WITH MAX HEATING IN PLACE ALONG WITH ENHANCED
LIFT AHEAD AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. NUMEROUS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SCATTERED (30 TO 50 PERCENT) COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STALLS NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
CLOSEST TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BUMPED UP POPS FOR THURSDAY ABOVE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS WELL DUE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ALSO WENT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
HIGHS REACHING 91 TO 95 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH COASTAL SECTIONS
REACHING 87 TO 92 DEGREES. HOT AND MUGGY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND]...THE UPPER
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY DOMINATE THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WEAKENS INTO A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A CANADIAN SYSTEM
SENDS A WEAK TRAILING FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE MIDSECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI.  A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND KEEPS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.  WILL CONTINUE
WITH SMALL POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.  AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
SHORE EACH MORNING BECOMING ISOLATED IN THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.AVIATION [28/18Z ISSUANCE]...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR
THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE AROUND THE TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST. /13

&&

.FIRE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT STALLS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  96 /  80  60  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  92  78  95 /  70  60  30  30
DESTIN      77  91  79  93 /  60  60  30  30
EVERGREEN   72  94  71  98 /  70  50  30  20
WAYNESBORO  72  95  72  99 /  50  50  20  20
CAMDEN      71  95  70  98 /  50  30  20  20
CRESTVIEW   72  92  72  98 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-291200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THIS LINE WILL BE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE STORM BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. DUE
TO THE EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS REQUESTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ALZ062-064-FLZ001-002-282215-
INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-UPPER BALDWIN AL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
441 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF MOLINO...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OAK GROVE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TENILE AND BARRINEAU PARK

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

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