Special Marine Warning 77, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AN ELONGATED VORTICITY
MAX ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS
SERVED AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW 60S. MLCAPES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WILL RESULT
IN A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...LEAVING US
IN ALMOST AN IDENTICAL PATTERN TO TODAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN A
LITTLE TOO COOL ON HIGH TEMPS SO WE WILL ONCE AGAIN GO ABOVE THE MAV.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOWER 90S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES CHANGE LITTLE WITH DEWPOINTS AGAIN
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY...KEEPING CAPES IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. SO LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN INTO AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED FROM
THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NUDGES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALLS. THESE
AREAS OF WEAKNESS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE AS
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO PUSH ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
INLAND AREAS...AND THE MID 70S COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...OUR AREA
WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/DESERT SOUTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT FORECAST
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. 22/34

&&

.AVIATION (10.18Z AND 11.00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE LOUISIANA
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEEP
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE
AWAY FROM THE COAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHORE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  95  72  95 /  30  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      76  91  77  92 /  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   68  97  68  97 /  30  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  68  96  68  97 /  30  30  20  30
CAMDEN      68  96  68  97 /  30  30  20  30
CRESTVIEW   67  96  70  96 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             MONROEVILLE             31.53N 87.32W
06/10/2011  E0.75 INCH       MONROE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN MONROEVILLE.

&&

KC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

ALZ062-FLZ001-102215-
INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
430 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATMORE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
CARNEY...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARNEY...BAY MINETTE...I65 AND AL 287 AROUND 515 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 42.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>