Special Marine Warning 53, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING  ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNSET SCATTERED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT TRENDING DOWN ON INTENSITY AS
NIGHT FALLS.  MIGHT BE A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL THE RISK FOR SEVERE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL EASE UP SOME EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN REDEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR MOBILE AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG INTERSTATE 65 AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO. SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS THE FRONT NEARS PENSACOLA AROUND SUNRISE.
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR RIDING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF ON MONDAY...SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MONDAY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH A LOW MONDAY NIGHT
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /11

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY
TUESDAY AND A COOL(FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) AFTERNOON...ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. AN APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. /11

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
FEW SPOTS OF VFR AND A FEW SPOTS OF IFR. IFR IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IN AREAS WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN FALL OCCURRED. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
THE WINDS TO WEST THEN NORTHERLY AS CEILINGS BECOME MVFR SATURDAY
MORNING. /11

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED STORMS...SOME STRONG OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOT ENDING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO
DAYLIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.  THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST MARINE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TURN MORE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR FLOWS SOUTHEAST
OVER THE GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP AROUND A
HALF INCH. SOME PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT BY SUNDAY. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  82  57  79 /  40  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   70  83  61  81 /  50  30  05  05
DESTIN      70  82  65  80 /  50  30  05  05
EVERGREEN   64  83  54  79 /  40  20  05  05
WAYNESBORO  59  80  52  78 /  40  10  05  05
CAMDEN      64  80  54  78 /  40  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   64  86  55  81 /  50  40  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ALZ054>056-059-060-FLZ003-132030-
ESCAMBIA AL-COVINGTON AL-CONECUH AL-MONROE AL-WILCOX AL-
INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ESCAMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN
COVINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN CONECUH...MONROE AND SOUTHERN WILCOX
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FRISCO CITY TO 14 MILES WEST OF CRESTVIEW...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FRISCO CITY...I65 AND AL 41...BREWTON AROUND 255 PM CDT...
MCLELLAN...EXCEL AROUND 300 PM CDT...
REPTON AROUND 305 PM CDT...
MONROEVILLE...I65 AND CR 6 AROUND 310 PM CDT...
CASTLEBERRY AROUND 315 PM CDT...
BOYKIN AROUND 320 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 99.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
247 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAWBEEK                 31.03N 87.36W
05/13/2011                   ESCAMBIA           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE LARGE OAK TREE REPORTED ACROSS THE ROAD IN WAWBEEK.

&&

GENEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
303 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRANTLEY                31.58N 86.26W
05/13/2011                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN IN BRANTLY.

&&

GENEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             LUVERNE                 31.72N 86.26W
05/13/2011  E0.50 INCH       CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARBLE HAIL REPORTED ON SOUTH SIDE OF LUVERNE.

&&

GENEJ