Fire Weather Watch 7, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 AM CST THU JAN 13 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AIRMASS IS
NOT BEING ALLOWED TO MODIFY DUE TO THE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH.
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TO LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE
IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
WE WILL UPGRADE THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. LOWS WILL FALL IN UPPER TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S
NEAR THE COAST. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING
FRONT INTO THE REGION.  THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA MODERATES
MEANWHILE WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SATURDAY.  WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE HARD FREEZE
CRITERIA OVER INLAND AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER TWENTIES OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE LARGE AND BROAD LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AMPLIFIES THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROF.  PREFER
THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORTWAVES AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN...AND BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MONDAY.  THE
RETURN FLOW BRINGS A MODEST AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA BY MONDAY WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THEN DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. /29

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13

&&

.FIRE...DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE MID TWENTIES FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.  A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER BUT STILL COOL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID
TWENTIES.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING JUST TO AROUND 25F
RESULTS IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TWENTIES AND HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      42  20  50  25 /  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   43  24  51  28 /  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  27  50  31 /  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  18  48  21 /  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  41  17  49  21 /  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  18  47  22 /  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   43  19  51  21 /  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
     WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

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