Fire Weather Watch 52, NWS Mobile, AL

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-171200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ON TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF REGION TODAY...INITIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...TRANSITIONING EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF ROTATION...AND THERE
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES AND/OR WIND DAMAGE JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM
THIS MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATER
IN THE MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS WELL AS CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON AND CLARKE
COUNTIES OF ALABAMA THROUGH 10 AM. WHILE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE
ENOUGH LOLVL SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. AFTER SUNRISE...AS TEMPERATURES WARM...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE...BUT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THAT HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ROTATING STORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL BY AROUND MID
MORNING...LESSENING THE TORNADO THREAT BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT SOME
STILL STRONG...WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT
BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA LATER
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING
SEAS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE
NEEDED THIS MORNING.

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