Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE [04/00Z ISSUANCE]...THE DEGRADED CONDITIONS FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUSTAINED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 24 KNOTS AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM LEE MOVES NORTH OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE (34 KNOTS) CAN BE EXPECTED. FREQUENT DROPS TO
LIFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SQUALLS AND IFR CEILING CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. /22

***** PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS *****

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL STORM LEE CONTINUES
TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES HAS ALREADY BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS
OF LEE LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
AND WILL BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD WITH EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES. THIS
SITUATION COULD BECOME SERIOUS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS RELATIVE
HEAVIER RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 10 INCHES...BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM LEE. A SECONDARY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE RAIN BANDS AS THEY MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON LEE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...BY TUESDAY WHAT SHOULD BE A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF LEE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A TROUGH FINALLY PICKS UP THE
LOW AND MOVES IT OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT THE DEW POINTS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MOIST PLUS WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A VERY SATURATED SOIL TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND END THEM OVER THE EAST ON THURSDAY. SINCE I
KEPT THE DEW POINTS HIGHER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONG TERM...THE
LOW ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP FROM THE GUIDANCE. /11

&&

.AVIATION[03/18Z ISSUANCE]...CONDITIONS OVER THE FA WILL GENERAL
REMAIN IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT DROPS DUE TO SQUALLS FROM
LEE TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
WITH FREQUENT HIGHER WIND GUSTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH LABOR DAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LEE. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  83  77  86 / 100  80  80  80
PENSACOLA   78  83  79  87 /  90  80  80  80
DESTIN      78  83  80  87 /  90  80  80  80
EVERGREEN   72  83  72  86 /  90  90  60  80
WAYNESBORO  71  83  72  82 /  90  80  80  90
CAMDEN      71  83  72  85 /  70  90  60  80
CRESTVIEW   74  83  75  87 /  90  90  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...
     LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND
     WASHINGTON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
     UPPER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...AND STONE.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-040000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1202 AM CDT SAT AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE ROUTINE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN SUSPENDED. THE HWO
WILL RESUME WHEN TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR
THE AREA. INFORMATION NORMALLY CARRIED IN THE HWO CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL STORM STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL HWO FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE INTERNET HOME PAGE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
741 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TORNADO          5 W DAUPHIN ISLAND      30.25N 88.20W
09/03/2011                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED SMALL TORNADO CROSSING THE WESTERN-MOST
            END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND.

&&

JG