Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.AVIATION...(13.00 UTC CYCLE)...LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS THAT PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM INITIATES HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED SINCE 4 PM...HOWEVER
RECENT TREND INDICATE INITIATION OF NEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-65 FROM NORTHWEST
COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY.
SINCE 0-1 KM MLCAPES ARE STILL BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN THIS
REGION...TSRA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL INSTABILITY IS RELIEVED
THROUGH NEXT 13.02 UTC. THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE FORECAST TO
AFFECT TAF SITES...AS NO ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES ARE OBSERVED ON LATEST
GOES HIGH RES VIS IMAGERY. SO...THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE IS ONE OF
PERSISTENCE THROUGH NEXT 24 H WITH HEAVY INPUT FROM OBSERVATIONS PAST
24 H...GIVEN SYNOPTIC QUIESCENCE. SFC WINDS SHOULD GO CALM AROUND
03-04Z TIME FRAME. BY 13.14 UTC..BKN020-030 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INVOF TAF SITES WITH LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON INITIATION ONCE
AGAIN. DID ADD +RA SINCE PCPN EFFICIENCY WILL BE QUITE HIGH ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW. TSRA/SHRA SHOULD END FIRST IN KPNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
KMOB/KBFM LATER SINCE THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A POORLY-DEFINED SEA-
BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)NOT A LOT OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH GENERALLY TO THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH IT OCCASIONALLY SPLITS IN TO 2 CELLS WITH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN. THIS WEAKNESS IS CONDUCIVE TO
A BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE HEAT INDEX. WE HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND TOMORROW LOOKS TO
BE THE SAME. PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN STARTING JUST ABOUT
THE TIME WE REACH ADVISORY GUIDELINES FOR A HEAT ADVISORY...DELAY
THE CONVECTION A FEW HOURS AND WE WOULD LIKELY MAKE THE REQUIREMENT.
FOR TOMORROW HAVE TOOK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAV HIGHS BUT STILL
ABOVE THE WETTER AND COOLER METMOS. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES 106 TO
107 ON WEDNESDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS FINE TUNE AND DETERMINE NEED
FOR ADVISORY. THURSDAY GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT HIGHER BUT
DEW POINTS A BIT LOWER...END RESULT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE
HEAT INDEX.

AS A SIDE NOTE...TODAY MAKES THE 47TH DAY IN A ROW THAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS AT LEAST 90. THE PREVIOUS
MARK WAS 35 DAYS IN A ROW THAT ENDED AUGUST 24TH 1999. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL ADD AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS TO THE
STRING. /11

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)THE UPPER PATTERN ON SATURDAY
IS SIMILAR WITH AN H5 HIGH ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ANOTHER WEAK H5
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE TWO. THE HIGH REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF THE
OZARKS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH VARYING DEGREES OF TROFINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY AFTERNOON OVER LAND AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PAST MONTH OR SO. /11

AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN/NEAR AFTN TSRA ALG W/
BRIEF STG WIND GUSTS. OTRW...CIGS ABV 5 KFT XPCTD. LGT SW AFTN FLOW
BECOMES W/NW AT NIGHT. /10

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. MEANWHILE...A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE SOUTHEAST...SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST JUST SHY OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW LEVEL TROF
AXIS...A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN MID/LATE WEEK. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MARINE
STORMS COULD IN FACT PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
KNOTS AS WELL AS CONCENTRATED FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AWAY FROM
STORMS...A PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A BIT OF A NORTHWEST
COMPONENT TO THE WIND EXPECTED ON WED/THU MORNINGS. SEAS RANGE FROM
1 TO 3 FEET THRU THE PERIOD. /10

FIRE WEATHER...LITTLE CHANGE FORM PREVIOUS DAYS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. LOW HUMIDITY NOT A PROBLEM. LIGHTNING IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  76  95  76 /  50  50  60  50
PENSACOLA   93  78  94  79 /  50  50  60  50
DESTIN      91  79  92  81 /  50  50  60  50
EVERGREEN   98  74  97  74 /  40  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  97  73  96  74 /  70  30  60  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  74 /  30  20  50  20
CRESTVIEW   96  74  96  76 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-132100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER LAND TONIGHT.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE...LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP THERE. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MARINE STORMS COULD IN FACT PRODUCE BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AS WELL AS CONCENTRATED
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
IF EXPOSED TO THE HEAT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MSZ075-078-079-122215-
GEORGE MS-STONE MS-PERRY MS-
441 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GEORGE...STONE AND SOUTHERN
PERRY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JANICE TO BENNDALE TO LUCEDALE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE 45 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS AS THEY
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF BOTH STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF
TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR IF THEY FURTHER INTENSIFY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THIS STORM APPROACHES.

&&