Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS SEEN IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING INVOF THIS FEATURE HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE DIURNAL MIN
OVER THE LAST FEW HRS.

LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...MORNING RAOBS
SHOW QUITE AN E-W DISPARITY IN MOISTURE WITH TBW NEARLY A WHOLE HALF
INCH HIGHER IN MEAN PWATS VALUES. WITH DEEP LAYER W-WSW FLOW SEEN AT
TAMPA...THAT MOISTURE IS BEING (AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE) ADVECTED EWD
INTO THE MLB CWA.

REST OF TODAY...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE AND ASCD CLOUDS/PRECIP
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN CWA...TODAY DECIDEDLY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY IN PLACE...
AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES (BETWEEN WHERE CLOUDS ARE
AND ARE NOT PRESENT. ALL-IN-ALL THE PREMISE FOR PRECIP LOOKS A
LITTLE BETTER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE BDRY...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A
BIT TO 40 IN THAT AREA. REMAINDER OF CWA WILL STICK WITH 30. SHAVED
A COUPLE DEGS OFF MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE TOUGH DAY TO TIME DIURNAL CONVECTION GIVEN THE
BDRYS AND ASCD CLOUDS.LIGHT PRECIP ALREADY IN PLACE. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR +SHRA/TS WILL BE 18Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE ATLC
EARLY FRI MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
FLORIDA THRU THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO THE ATLC SUN NIGHT/MON.
SW-W WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS 2FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THROUGH
LATE FRI. LIGHT NW TO NORTH FLOW ON SAT WILL FRESHEN AS IT VEERS TO
NE AROUND 15KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS 3-5 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SHINGLE CREEK NEAR
CAMPBELL FOR MINOR FLOODING. LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND A SLOW FALL IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY NEAR GENEVA. A SLOW RISE TO ACTION STAGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
...THEN CRESTING AT OR NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-131500-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
403 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
15 MPH. THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINS... ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS COULD BLOW
DOWN TREES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH WEAK OR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEMS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL AND RECENT FULL MOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT DANGER AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE RECENT HIGH
SURF EVENT CUT NUMEROUS CHANNELS IN THE SANDBARS JUST OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO FORM. TAKE
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES
AND THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR SHINGLE
CREEK AT CAMPBELL AND FOR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY...
NEAR GENEVA. SHINGLE CREEK IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND THE SAINT
JOHNS ABOVE LAKE HARNEY IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
OVER THIS WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE WEEK BUT A RIP CURRENT DANGER WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

GLITTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FLZ141-131945-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
305 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER HOLLY
HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2938 8107 2915 8096 2911 8112 2927 8122
      2927 8116 2937 8116 2940 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 246DEG 20KT 2925 8103

MOSES