Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES
TODAY...

A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDING FROM
TAMPA/TALLAHASSEE CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL AIRMASS INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BECOME QUITE HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 105 DEGREES.

THIS DRIER WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO MANY BEACH GOERS TODAY. HOWEVER LINGERING SWELLS LEFT OVER FROM
HURRICANE IRENE WILL POSE A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A
RIP CURRENT STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THIS HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT ANY
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION CAN FORM TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL
LEAVE ANY VCTS/TEMPO GROUP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW THOUGH
DUE TO THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS AFT UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST FOR
W/SW WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BREVARD AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...HOT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY MAY PUT A RECORD HIGH OR TWO IN
JEOPARDY. RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AUGUST 27TH ARE AS FOLLOWS:

LOCATION        MAX   YEAR(S)
DAYTONA BEACH   101   1938
ORLANDO          97   1914, 1920, 1943
MELBOURNE        98   1938
VERO BEACH       94   1966, 1995

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

WEITLICH/LASCODY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1252 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

FLZ045-053-144-271745-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1252 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT.

AT 1250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER SOUTH
LAKE COUNTY AND APPROACHING THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE ANIMAL KINGDOM...BAY HILL...DOCTOR PHILLIPS AND LAKE BUENA
VISTA.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2855 8182 2857 8127 2822 8128 2822 8154
      2826 8156 2826 8166 2834 8167 2834 8179
      2836 8180 2836 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 274DEG 15KT 2840 8173

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

FLZ045-047-053-147-271845-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

AT 141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM LAKE MARY
JANE TO SAINT CLOUD AND 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE
KISSIMMEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CROSS THE BREVARD COUNTY LINE AND APPROACH
THE COAST FROM PORT CANAVERAL TO MELBOURNE BY AROUND 230 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THIS
LINE OF STORMS PASSES.

LAT...LON 2836 8060 2810 8056 2807 8057 2813 8061
      2806 8058 2787 8069 2789 8132 2800 8143
      2802 8144 2807 8135 2808 8140 2852 8117
      2850 8076 2841 8074 2849 8074 2849 8064
      2841 8065 2848 8061 2848 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 269DEG 28KT 2838 8111 2802 8135

RL