Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...NHC TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE
IRENE APPROX 200 MI E OF CAPE CANAVERAL THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI.
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE NMRS SQUALLS THAT MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40MPH. COASTAL COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE ADDITIONAL IMPACT OF LARGE
EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT SUNRISE WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS IRENE PARALLELS THE E FL COAST...THE
LOW/MID LYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM E TO NE. THIS WILL
INCREASINGLY FAVOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR PRECIP/STRONG WINDS ASSOCD
WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS...THOUGH MOST OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS THRU LATE AFTN.

STRONG WINDS...HIGH CLOUD COVER...AND SCT/NMRS SHRAS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U70S/L80S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
THE STEADY WINDS AND CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD COVER.

PLEASE NOTE...ANY CHANGES IN TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE WILL AFFECT
IMPACTS TO EC FL. ROUGH SURF AND ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DANGER
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST.

FRI-SUN...LATEST NHC TRACK ON IRENE PLACES THE CENTER ROUGHLY 220
MILES OFFSHORE DAYTONA BEACH AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BRISK AS IRENE
LIFTS NNE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRI. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY FRI BUT OVERALL A LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIP
EXPECTED AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR BEGINS TO WRAP IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE W-NW ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED REDUCED POP COVERAGE AND HOT TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW-MID 90S AREA WIDE
DUE TO LACK OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

NOTE: WHILE DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY MAKE IT TEMPTING TO
HEAD TO THE BEACH...IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MON-WED...FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HELPS DRAW SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND TROFFINESS ALOFT SHOULD
HELP POPS CLIMB BACK TO 30-40 PERCENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS ALSO
TREND BACK DOWN AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES:  THRU 25/15Z...VFR...OCNL SFC WND G22KTS
KMLB/KVRB. BTWN 25/15Z-25/18Z...NE SFC WNDS INCRSG TO ARND 20KTS
WITH GUSTS ARND 30KTS...SCT IFR SHRAS. BTWN 25/18Z-26/06Z NE SFC
WNDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS...NMRS IFR SHRAS/ISOLD LIFR SHRAS
WITH SFC G40-45KTS. AFT 26/06Z...SFC WNDS VEERING TO N/NE ARND 25KTS
WITH G35-40KTS...SCT IFR SHRAS.

INTERIOR SITES:  THRU 25/15Z...VFR. BTWN 25/15Z-25/18Z...NE SFC WNDS
INCRSG TO ARND 20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS...ISOLD IFR SHRAS. BTWN
25/18Z-26/00Z NE SFC WNDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS...NMRS IFR
SHRAS/ISOLD LIFR SHRAS WITH SFC G40KTS. AFT 26/00Z...SFC WNDS
VEERING TO N ARND 20KTS WITH G25-30KTS...SCT IFR SHRAS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...DANGEROUS BOATING AS HURRICANE IRENE
PASSES OFF THE E FL COAST. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NRLY WINDS 30-40KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
17-23FT. TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WITH NRLY WINDS 25-35KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12-17FT. WIND GUSTS
HIGHER IN OCNL SQUALLS.

FRI-SUN...DANGEROUS BOATING FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY OFFSHORE (POSSIBLE NEAR
SHORE)...THEN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE RAISED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AFTER THE TROPICAL HEADLINES EXPIRE. SHOULD
BEGIN  TO SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY ROUGH SURF AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT THREATS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  81  91  79 /  60  60  50  30
MCO  91  77  91  79 /  50  30  40  20
MLB  90  79  91  80 /  60  60  50  30
VRB  92  81  92  80 /  60  60  50  30
LEE  93  77  91  78 /  40  30  30  20
SFB  92  78  92  78 /  40  40  40  20
ORL  91  78  91  79 /  40  30  40  20
FPR  89  81  91  79 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....GLITTO
TROPICAL DESK...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-252200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
840 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TODAY AS MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE AND PUSH INLAND. STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
WHILE HURRICANE IRENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...LOCAL FLOODING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SQUALLS MAY
OCCUR AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE AND PUSH INLAND.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
LARGE SWELLS AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
POUNDING SURF AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...
WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 5:30 AND 6:00 THIS EVENING. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
POUNDING SURF AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES
WILL GENERATE AN EXTREME RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY. BEACH GOERS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN ON LAND AND NOT VENTURE INTO THE SURF UNTIL THE
SWELLS SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SEAS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TODAY AS MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BUILDING TO OVER 10 FEET NEARSHORE
OVER 20 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
OFFSHORE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO PASS AROUND 175 MILES
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN IRENE'S WAKE...LEADING TO A
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS
FROM MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PLEASE REFER
TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

MB/RL

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