Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
256 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF CWA AND PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AND SLIGHTLY LESS HEATING/INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR/ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND INTERIOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUGGESTS SOME LOCAL
SUBSIDENCE. WITH WEAK W/NW STEERING FLOW AND CONVECTION/BOUNDARIES
TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF CWA...STILL EXPECT ONSET OF MID AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CWA...BECOMING SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS AND DEBRIS RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

SUN-MON...MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH
STEERING FLOW REVERTING FROM WESTERLY TO EASTERLY...GREATEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR INTERIOR/WESTERN CWA DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OVER/NEAR CWA. ORGANIZATION/MOVEMENT OF DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO
PLAY A PARTIAL FACTOR IN COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT
MAY PROMOTE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER LEADING TO LESS
HEATING...AND/OR ALTERING STEERING PATTERN.

TUE-FRI...MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS THE SURFACE-MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SHUNTED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE FEATURE ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...FAVORING THE
EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR RAIN. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY
NOTABLE FEATURES...POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AT
30-40 PERCENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
DAY TO DAY STORM COVERAGE WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON AFTERNOON
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD.
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE THUS FAR TODAY. HOWEVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WEST OF AREA SHOULD
BEGIN TO PROMPT ADDITIONAL CELL GROWTH ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES.
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND BEYOND COASTAL TAF
SITES. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
NOT IMPACT KMLB/KDAB INITIALLY...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PUSH BACK TOWARD SITES LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 01-02Z.
DIURNAL CONVECTION SUN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONSHORE AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD.

SUN-THU...A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN/MON
DUE TO THE THE BROAD INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. SPECIFIC WIND FIELDS WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF A WEAK LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH NEAR/OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST DURING THE PERIOD. BEYOND MONDAY...THE RIDGE BECOME
REESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO MID WEEK. STORM CHANCES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL DUE TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE REGION.
SEAS 3-5FT...POSSIBLY 5-6FT OFFSHORE SUN AND MON SUBSIDING TO
2-3FT LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  75  87 /  40  50  30  50
MCO  75  90  74  91 /  30  50  30  50
MLB  74  86  73  88 /  40  50  40  60
VRB  73  88  71  89 /  40  50  40  60
LEE  76  91  75  91 /  30  40  30  40
SFB  77  90  75  91 /  40  50  30  50
ORL  76  90  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
FPR  72  87  70  88 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SPRATT
IMPACT WEATHER/DECISION SUPPORT...LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-162300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CONSIDERABLE MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE
CANAVERAL SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM
THERE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND.  NORTHERN AREAS WERE AFFECTED BY SOME
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS IN NORTH FLORIDA.  EVENTUALLY
THESE AREAS WILL HEAT UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP.

STORM MOTION WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO PROPAGATION AS NEW STORMS FORM
FROM MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS.

THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST
SIGN OF A STORM DEVELOPING NEARBY.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED MICROBURST
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL LEAD TO LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND THREE
INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. BEACHGOERS SHOULD CHECK CONDITIONS
WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS. ONLY SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SLOW MOVING AND INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER
INLAND LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE
COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE
REQUESTED TO REPORT RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THREE INCHES TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
549 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FLZ058-162215-
OKEECHOBEE-
549 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER OKEE
TANTIE STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE TAYLOR CREEK.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. STATE LAW REQUIRES
HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

LAT...LON 2716 8090 2718 8091 2721 8095 2721 8097
      2723 8099 2724 8098 2733 8088 2727 8068
      2718 8074 2720 8080 2719 8083 2714 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 332DEG 6KT 2718 8088

BOWEN