Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PW VALUES ARND 2.0"...
AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE DEEP S WILL ALLOW SHRAS/TSRAS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS
THE THE CENTRAL PENINSULA REMAINS WELL S OF AN H85-H30 VORT AXIS
OVER THE NRN GULF COAST...H85-H70 AND H85-H50 LAPSE RATES HOLD BTWN
5-6C/KM...AND H50 TEMPS ARND -8C.  NEVERTHELESS...A WELL DEFINED
EAST COAST SEABREEZE MAY PROVIDE THE LOW LVL FOCUS NECESSARY TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS
EVENING.

WILL GO WITH 40 POPS INTERIOR AND SRN COASTAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
ACTIVITY SHOULD CHEW UP MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY...50 POPS FROM
COASTAL VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER AS SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR
E OF LAKE GEORGE...ORLANDO...AND LAKE KISSIMMEE...INCREASING THEIR
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWBACK TSRAS. HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SWRLY
FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

SATURDAY...
THE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FL STRAITS THANKS TO THE
STORM SYSTEM BTWN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A WEAK
TROF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
STRUCTURE AS IT IS FED BY TWO 80KT H25 JET STREAKS... ONE DIGGING
ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST AND ONE LIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER S FL THRU THE DAY...WHICH
IN TURN WILL MAINTAIN AND PSBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN THE DEEP W/SW FLOW
ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AOA 2.0" AS THE
DLM FLOW TAPS COPIOUS LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE OVER THE SE GOMEX/NW
CARIB.  AN H85-H30 VORT AXIS ALNG THE N GULF COAST MAY ENHANCE THE
SVR WX POTENTIAL SHOULD IT WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH S.

INCREASING STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FASTER STORM MOTION AND HIGHER
COVERAGE WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL ZONES.  B WILL GO
WITH 60-70POPS AREAWIDE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE WRLY
STEERING COMPONENT. LOW LVL PGRAD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP...BUT THE WRLY FLOW WILL KEEP IT
PINNED NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS L90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...M90S INTERIOR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE AXIS STILL IN POSITION TO PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE LOOKS MOST ABUNDANT ALONG THE EAST
AND TREASURE COASTS...SO INCLUDED HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 30 PERCENT
THERE.

SUNDAY...
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE LOW LOOK TO LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH. THIS INITIAL
LIFTING OF THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THEREFORE
INCLUDED A TREND OF POPS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STATIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
INTERIOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE DRY SURGE WILL SEE BEST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW TRANSPORTING SHOWERS AND STORMS
INLAND.

MON-THU (PREVIOUS)...
SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO NORTH FLORIDA AND OPENS FORECAST AREA
TO MARITIME FLOW WITH PWATS REMAINING ELEVATED. WITH AXIS RELOCATED
NORTH OF AREA...THIS WOULD FAVOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLC AND COAST TRANSITIONING INLAND EACH AFTN. THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS
THE YUCATAN INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM MUCH WEAKER. NEITHER SOLUTION LOOKS TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO...LOWER
90S...EXCEPT UPPER 80S COAST WITH MINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 24/22Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. BTWN 24/22Z-25/02Z...
TEMPO SCT/NMRS TSRAS...ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING BY 25/04Z. AFT
25/04Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL120.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL GENERATE A GENTLE
TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE NEAR
THE COAST ARND MIDDAY SAT AS THE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND
PUSHES INLAND. SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. SCT/NMRS
SHRAS AND TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MID/LATE
SAT AFTN. CHOPPY SHORT PD WND WAVES S OF THE ST. LUCIE INLET DUE TO
THE GRAND BAHAMA SHADOW.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS TO
5 TO 10 KTS IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2
FT NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FT OFFSHORE WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY 8 TO 9
SECONDS. AREAS SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET MAY EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT
SHORTER PERIODS AND CHOPPIER SEAS DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

MON-TUE...ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK TO THE N AS A CONTINENTAL
RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE SERN SEABOARD. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE S/SE BTWN 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4F OFFSHORE. SCT
SHRAS AND TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT ACRS THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA. NO
LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  72  92 /  50  60  30  30
MCO  75  95  73  94 /  40  60  30  40
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  50  70  40  40
VRB  73  92  74  90 /  50  70  40  40
LEE  76  94  75  94 /  40  60  30  30
SFB  76  94  75  95 /  40  60  30  40
ORL  76  95  76  94 /  40  60  30  40
FPR  71  92  73  90 /  50  70  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...GUSEMAN
RADAR/WX WATCH........CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-242200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DRIFT INLAND FROM BOTH
COASTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE STORM COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZES DRIFT INLAND. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH AND EXTEND BACK TO THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS
ON INTERIOR LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR DAILY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

GLITTO/GUSEMAN

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