Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...INITIAL STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH THE HEAT OF
AFTN. ALONG THE ECSB AND LAKE BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
ACTIVITY STRONGLY TIED TO SB HEATING WILL WIND DOWN WITH DUSK AND
END BY AROUND 10 PM. WINDS WL BECOME CALM WITH SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
AND HAZE ACROSS VOLUSIA...LAKE...ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

SAT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED NEAR THE CENTER PORTION
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND UP THE PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
WILL GO WITH SCT STORMS DURING AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH WEAK
STEERING TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 COAST.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...THE STORMS THAT FORM FROM LATE DAY BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE BACK
TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING UNDER A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE DELAYED WITH LESS INLAND MOVEMENT NORTH OF THE
CAPE. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST SO SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCEMENT IN
ACTIVITY WITH ANY INTERACTIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE OVER THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TOWARD OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MODELS INDICATE HIGHER MOISTURE.

MON-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY UP AND DOWN THE PENINSULA MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EACH DAY IMPACTS
WHETHER SEA BREEZES START EARLY AND CLEARS THE COAST OR IS HAMPERED
FROM MAKING MUCH INLAND MOVEMENT. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOWER 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S WHICH IS CLOSE TO THEIR CLIMO
VALUES FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR/IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY INTERIOR
THROUGH 03Z THEN VFR AREAS BR/FU FM 08Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST WHEN THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. LESSER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COAST DUE TO LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND INLAND SEA
BREEZE PENETRATION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SOURCE OF FIRE IGNITION INTO LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. NO LOW RH
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  94  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  74  95  74  95 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  75  91  74  91 /  10  30  20  30
VRB  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  20  30
LEE  75  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  30
SFB  76  96  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  77  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  73  90  73  91 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-172100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
935 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AFTER A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY...A RETURN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL INCREASE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG MICROBURST
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING BACK ACROSS THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTHWARD.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT WITH DRY FUELS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF NEW FIRE IGNITION AND
RAPID SPREAD FROM STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

LASCODY/WEITLICH

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