Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
237 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL 8 PM...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL OVER 100 DEGREES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COMBINED CURRENT HOT TEMPERATURE READINGS AND
DEWPOINT VALUES. AFTERNOON KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 500 MB ~ -8C/-9C.
DUE TO INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
~1.70 INCHES...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED ALONG THE NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL
BE A PLAYER FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THERE WILL BE A COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZES
LATE IN DAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL AGAIN ENHANCE CONVECTION. INITIAL STORM MOTION WILL
BE TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN AROUND MID EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOW MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
AN EARLIER ONSET AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON
THE ORDER OF ~ -10C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.7 INCHES. THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
THOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (20
PERCENT) MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW END CHANCE (30
PERCENT) INTO THE INTERIOR. WITH SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FORECAST
ALOFT THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 90S INTO THE INTERIOR.

FRI-SUN...(PREVIOUS) WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUN. THIS
WOULD PLACE THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
OFF THE ATLANTIC IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT.

MAV MOS POPS FOR FRI-SAT ARE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EVEN LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT ON SAT. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAILY CONVECTION
RECENTLY...WILL GO 20 PERCENT ON FRI ACROSS THE AREA AND 20 POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SAT. BY SUN THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE
SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ZONE OF GREATER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...SO WILL FOLLOW MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 20 POPS.

MON-WED...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...RESULTING IN NORTH FLOW ALOFT. POSSIBLE
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MAY
INCREASE STORM CHANCES...THOUGH THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY NOT A HIGH
COVERAGE ONE. MOS POPS TREND UP TO 30-40 PERCENT...AND HAVE CAPPED
THEM AT 30 PERCENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME LCL MVFR VSBYS/CIGS DUE TO BR LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING WITH RECENT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
SOME FU/HZ FROM RECENT BRUSH FIRES AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS. SCT WET
MICROBURST TYPE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM
INTENSE SFC HEATING...SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS AND SUBSEQUENT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTING
STRIKES...COIN SIZE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO
THU. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. OFFSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHOPPY 3-5
SECOND DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THEY ARE
FORECAST TO LENGTHEN LATER TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING
ONSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ESE/SE
OVERNIGHT/THU WITH WINDS MAINLY AOB 12 KTS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 15
KTS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY ON THU. SEAS 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND
2-2.5 FT OFFSHORE.

STILL POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW STORMS ALONG THE COAST COULD
PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES...COIN SIZE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. A WATERSPOUT MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTH. SOME LATE DAY TO EVENING INCREASE IS
INDICATED IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 15 KNOTS EACH DAY.

WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATE WEEK WIND REGIME IS INDICATED
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH. SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-EVENING...HIGHER DEWPOINT
READINGS THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CRITICAL LEVELS OF LOW RH AT BAY.
HEAT INDICES WELL OVER 100 DEGREES THRU-OUT ECFL. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

THU...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
WINDS BELOW 15 MPH EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON-EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

FRI-SUN...(PREV) MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 40 PERCENT
OR HIGHER. WINDS BELOW 15 MPH EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON- EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ISOLATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  75  95  73  94 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  76  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  76  97  76  94 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  76  96  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
ORL  77  95  76  95 /  20  20  20  20
FPR  73  89  73  88 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-160000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
208 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH ALONG WITH COIN SIZE HAIL...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
A THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF TORNADOES.

MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO STRIKE YOU.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
MAINLAND OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING
OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL AFFECT INLAND LAKES DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
POTENTIALLY THE INTRACOASTAL AND IMMEDIATE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AT AROUND
15 KNOTS. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF ANY LIGHTNING STORMS.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
BRIEF SPIN UPS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDING DAMAGING WATERSPOUTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY LIGHTNING STORMS. THIS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AT THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS DUE TO THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEVELOPING AND ONGOING
STORMS JUST INLAND.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUEL CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40S AND THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER
TODAY.

SEVERAL LIGHTNING-INITIATED FIRES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
...AND MORE IGNITIONS FROM LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
LIGHTNING STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE PATTERN OF HIGHER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON RAINFALL ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

PENDERGRAST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
510 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             5 W CARLTON             27.35N 80.50W
06/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       ST. LUCIE          FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
537 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 ESE FORT DRUM        27.45N 80.67W
06/15/2011  M40 MPH          ST. LUCIE          FL   MESONET

            STATION REPORTED 35 KT/40 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
602 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             11 NNW INDIANTOWN       27.16N 80.55W
06/15/2011  E1.75 INCH       MARTIN             FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED THROUGH SHERIFFS OFFICE OF GOLF
            BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR MARTIN HWY AT FOX BROWN RD.

&&

ARB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ064-152300-
MARTIN-
618 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER PORT
MAYACA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2696 8062 2698 8062 2707 8066 2711 8067
      2713 8069 2717 8068 2709 8043 2696 8044
      2695 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 313DEG 12KT 2704 8058

MOSES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
642 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NNW INDIANTOWN       27.16N 80.51W
06/15/2011                   MARTIN             FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. TREES APPROX 3-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            AND 7-8 FT TALL. ON MARTIN HWY BETWEEN FOX BROWN RD AND
            ALLAPATTAH RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

ARB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
713 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ044-160015-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
713 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE VILLAGES...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE THE VILLAGES...FRUITLAND PARK...AND US 441.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2896 8196 2896 8195 2896 8176 2896 8175
      2878 8178 2878 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 007DEG 12KT 2902 8190

MOSES