Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA....

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BORDER OF SE GA/NE FL WILL BE SWEPT UP THE COAST TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROF TREKS EASTWARD WITH LIFTING 160KT JET. AS LOW LIFTS UP THE
COAST...THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
COMING TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS IT DOES SO. HAVE DISTRIBUTED
EVENING POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH AND ENDED ALL RAIN OVER LAND
AREAS BY 06Z. COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT MINS...FALLING INTO MID/UPPER 50S MUCH OF THE
AREA... EXCEPT LOW/MID 60S TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF EC FL WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 NORTH AND LOWER 80S
REST OF THE AREA.

PREVIOUS...
SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BUILDS EASTWARD AND OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH RIDGE AXIS SETTLED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
80S EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRI AND SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S AND THEN SHOULD SEE MORE MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW
60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THEIR SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. LONG TERM MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TUES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS
ATTM...INCREASED POPS TUES NIGHT TO 30% WITH THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS COOLING TO MORE NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR REDUCTIONS IN TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 01/00Z THEN REMAINING TSRA DIMINISHING FROM N-S BETWEEN
01/00-06Z. STILL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS 40+KT THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...PGRAD HAS TIGHTENED OVER LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE SOUTH AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR NE FL COAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT UP FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. (PREV) WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY EVENING UP TO 15-20 KTS OFFSHORE.
WEST WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND...BECOMING NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
AND BUILDS OFFSHORE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 4 FT OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 35% OVER
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR. IN ADDITION INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS UP TO NEAR 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON COULD CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN INTO LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  80  57  81 /  30   0  10  10
MCO  58  82  57  84 /  30   0  10  10
MLB  59  82  56  81 /  40   0  10  10
VRB  60  82  56  83 /  40   0  10  10
LEE  58  81  56  82 /  20   0  10  10
SFB  59  81  57  83 /  30   0  10  10
ORL  59  81  59  82 /  30   0  10  10
FPR  61  82  57  82 /  50   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INDIAN RIVER-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

GLITTO/MOSES/GUSEMAN/SHARP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>