Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
906 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...LTST ANALYSIS ALONG WITH WIND PROFILERS SHOW A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY ACROSS NORTHER OSCEOLA COUNTY
MOVING QUICKLY NORTH. SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE TEMPORARILY DECREASED IN COVERAGE...HOWEVER RE-DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING DE TO EFFECTS FROM MARGINAL SB
INSTABILITY...THE LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

MAIN CONCERN ASCD WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SAT IMAGERY DURING THE MORNING
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ASCD WITH APCHG DISTURBANCE
THIS IS SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS...HOWEVER
CHARACTER/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTN AS THE FEATURE APCHS THE FL W COAST.

ALL FCST MODELS STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
850 MB SPEEDS REACHING AROUND 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL FL.
GULF LOW WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG...AND VEERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...WITH FAST MOVEMENT BRINGING AT LEAST STRONG
GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FCST UPDATE WL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM INCLUDING SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS
N OF ORANGE/BREVARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
(PREV) IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED MAINLY KLEE-KSFB-KDAB WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOULD GET PUSHED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO GUST TO NEAR 25
KNOTS. A CHANCE FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

IFR-MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND COLD FRONT UNTIL
AROUND 03Z...ESPECIALLY KISM-KMCO NORTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WL PRODUCE INCREASING SLY FLOW AS
GULF DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT AREA. SOUTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
ADVISORY INITIATES FOR FOR STRONGER SLY WINDS OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATE
TODAY AND DURING THE EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35
KNOTS OR GREATER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
AM      EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM      SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET      20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

JP/RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
505 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-072100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
505 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AND THEN INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP
THE PENINSULA TODAY AND THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

A LARGE MASS OF RAINFALL WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO AND
CAPE CANAVERAL THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THOSE NORTHERN AREAS.

DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS...SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...BUT IF ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WERE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD
FORM LATE IN THE DAY.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE GULF STREAM. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LASCODY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
212 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011

FLZ041-044-141-072015-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
212 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...NORTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM EST.

AT 208 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM LAKE
GEORGE TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE GEORGE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2924 8100 2923 8102 2924 8102 2923 8103
      2905 8164 2929 8165 2931 8168 2933 8167
      2938 8147 2940 8142 2927 8140 2927 8116
      2941 8116 2943 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 252DEG 49KT 2939 8157 2909 8176

KELLY