Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST WED JAN 5 2011

...SHOWERS LIKELY...A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
SECTIONS TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY NW-SE ORIENTED AND DRAPED
FROM TEH GULF COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MID AFTERNOON...
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ALONG IT IN THE NE GULF.
BAND OF TSRA QUICKLY MOVING W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WHILE
AREA IS SINKING TOWARD THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL. DEW POINTS
REBOUNDING FROM MIDDAY WHEN A LOCALLY DRY POCKET OF AIR WORKED
THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S...WITH TDS
NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THOSE SAME AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/JET ASCENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...ESP FROM THE METRO ORLANDO AREA AND PORT CANAVERAL
NORTHWARD.  GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF ACTIVITY APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WILL INDICATE ONSET OF HIGHER POPS OCCURRING A LITTLE
EARLIER TONIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN... ALONG
WITH CG LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THE ACTIVITY PASSES.

PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP BAND WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THURS MORNING ALL AREAS BUT DIMINISH FROM
N-S AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HAVE DISTRIBUTED POPS FROM LIKELY NORTH
GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN HEADING SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN HIGHER CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS DAYTIME HOURS THURS. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TONIGHT WITH MINS REMAINING
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THURS NIGHT-SAT...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
THURS NIGHT WITH W/NW WINDS DRAGGING DOWN COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A FEW NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S FROM ORLANDO
AREA NORTHWARD TO UPPER 60S FARTHER SOUTH FRI AFT.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE W/SW WITH AFT TEMPS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY SO EXPECTING TO REMAIN DRY.

SUN-TUE...12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF LOW SYSTEM BY LATE WEEKEND AND DRAGGING IT
ACROSS FLORIDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER VARIABLE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THIS SYSTEM KEEP THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN IN THE
EXTENDED.

(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) FORECAST STILL PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS
SCATTERED TOO MUCH IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TO GO MORE THAN A 20 POP AT
THIS TIME. LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE NOT THAT REASSURING IN THEIR
PRESENTATION AND THE CANADIAN KEEPS ITS TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS MAINLY AOA VFR THRESHOLDS OUTSIDE SHRA. TEMPO MVFR
REDUCTIONS IN SHRA MAINLY NWD FROM KMCO-KTTS THROUGH 06/00Z THEN
INCREASING IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. IFR REDUCTIONS IN TSRA WITH SFC WND GUSTS AOA 30KT
POSSIBLE...ESP FROM ARND KISM-KMCO-KTTS NWD.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHTENING
PGRAD AHEAD OF FRONT. SCA STARTS AT 00Z FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WHILE INITIALLY WILL BE FOR WINDS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
BUILD...FOR SIMPLICIITY HAVE MADE THE ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR BUILDING SEAS LATE THURSDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS ELEVATED TO 15-20 KTS
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-8 FT OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...SO HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE SCA OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY
AND BE SLOWLY MODIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFT...HOWEVER IF
RH FALLS BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS DURATION IS EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A
COUPLE HOURS. STILL...WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10-15 MPH COULD POSE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  66  40  65 /  60  30   0   0
MCO  60  67  42  65 /  60  30   0   0
MLB  63  72  41  65 /  50  40  10   0
VRB  64  73  43  66 /  40  40  10   0
LEE  59  65  41  64 /  60  30   0   0
SFB  60  67  41  65 /  60  30   0   0
ORL  60  67  43  65 /  60  30   0   0
FPR  63  74  42  67 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

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