Special Marine Warning 22, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1026 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS MOVING EAST
TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 50 TO 55 MPH. LIMITING FACTOR FOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AREAS NORTH OF CENTRAL
OSCEOLA COUNTY HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER AND STABILIZED BY MORNING
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...BUT LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH
HAVE REMAINED DRY THUS FAR.

THEREFORE...DISCRETE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
FIRING UP IN SOUTHERN BREVARD...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH IN
VICINITY TO VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW BLASTING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...WIND
FIELDS AND HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT AS
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RANGES FROM 60 TO 70 KNOTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG WITH A 40 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL
VEERING REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MLB AND VRB WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN STORMS DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH IN
THEIR VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
WEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WAVES WILL RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 5 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PERIODS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL BE IN PLACE...MAKING
FOR CHOPPY BOATING CONDITIONS AS WIND WAVES WILL BE DRIVING FORCE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION NEARSHORE.

REMAIN AWARE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND
TAKE SHELTER IF YOU HEAR THUNDER AND/OR SEE LIGHTNING. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO LOW RH CONCERNS TODAY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TODAY...NORTH OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THERE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER RH'S IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AS DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE PENINSULA. WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  55  77  57 /  90  20   0  10
MCO  81  57  80  57 /  90  20  10  10
MLB  85  59  78  56 /  80  30  10  10
VRB  85  59  80  56 /  60  40  10  10
LEE  80  55  79  56 /  90  20   0  10
SFB  81  56  80  57 /  90  20   0  10
ORL  80  58  79  59 /  90  20  10  10
FPR  87  59  81  57 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

GUSEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
601 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-311700-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
601 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NORTH OF TAMPA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN OVERSPREAD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE ACTUALLY
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS AGAIN DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TORNADOES. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST AT
50 TO 60 MPH.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES WHICH MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST
AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AND PUSH RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 KNOTS.

BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT AS STORMS APPROACH
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER LAKES DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM REACHES YOUR AREA.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
832 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     KENNEDY SPACE CENTER    28.52N 80.68W
03/31/2011                   BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            NASA TEST DIRECTOR OBSERVED FUNNEL CLOUD NW OF LAUNCH PAD
            39A.

&&

JRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
912 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW ASTOR              29.09N 81.60W
03/30/2011  M63 MPH          LAKE               FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN OCALA NATIONAL FOREST.
            HELICOPTER PIVOTED ON ITS PAD.

&&

JRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     TSTM WND GST     SCOTTSMOOR              28.77N 80.88W
03/30/2011  E70 MPH          BREVARD            FL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS LIMBS TORN OFF TREES.

&&

JRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 AM     TSTM WND GST     CAPE CANAVERAL          28.39N 80.60W
03/31/2011  M0 MPH           BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            ASOS KXMR OBSERVATION REMARKS PK WND 31036/1244

&&

JRC