Lake Wind Advisory 3, NWS Melbourne, FL

870 
WWUS72 KMLB 051737
NPWMLB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
137 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2011


FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-051845-
/O.CAN.KMLB.LW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110405T2300Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...
SANFORD...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...
VERO BEACH...OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND...
DAYTONA BEACH...CLERMONT...TITUSVILLE
137 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. 

THERE MAY STILL BE SOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY...

OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT WERE FORCING A SQUALL LINE THAT WAS PUSHING EAST AT 35-40 MPH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...AND SHOULD REACH TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND NORTHEAST GULF AROUND 12Z.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AS INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW RAISES MOISTURE LEVELS.  THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
NORTH HALF...BUT HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH EXTENDS THIS SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TUE...BAND OF CONVECTION WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...MAINLY BREVARD/OSCEOLA NORTHWARD...AND EXTEND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BEING MAINTAINED ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY PRE FRONTAL WINDS
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO
HAVE SOME EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS.  THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
STRONG-SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WILL
BE SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PRESENT.  THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND FOR CELLS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE THOUGH...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH BUT BY THEN THE SHEAR
WILL BE DECREASING.  NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WHICH INDICATES
LIKELY POPS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON
TUE.  HAVE FOLLOWED LAMP GUIDANCE AND INDICATED A 2 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS OF COURSE SUBJECT TO
REFINEMENT AS THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.  EXPECT
A CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS 40-50 KNOTS WITH THE STORMS.  AFTER THE LINE
PUSHES EAST OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A PERIOD OF POOR BOATING TONIGHT AND TUE WITH NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

TUE...A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM ABOUT MELBOURNE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  BEHIND
THE STORMS...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KICK IN WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS.

WED...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 15-20
KNOTS EARLY SO THE POOR BOATING MAY EXTEND INTO ANOTHER DAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

LASCODY/SPRATT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
641 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-051000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
641 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
REACH THE BIG BEND REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A BAND OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND OF
STORMS...AND AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SHORT PERIOD
WAVES IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM EARLY
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BUT MAY BE NEEDED
EARLY TUESDAY.

LASCODY