Lake Wind Advisory 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE OVER ATLANTIC WATER THROUGH TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING PGRAD BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD TO THE NORTH WILL BRING VEERING AND INCREASING
WINDS TODAY. NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N-NE AFTER
SUNRISE AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. THE GUSTY WINDS 20 MPH AND GUSTY INTERIOR AND 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST HAVE PROMPTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF EC FL STARTING LATE THIS MORNING.

THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACH DUE TO ROUGH SURF/LONG SHORE AND
RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION NEAR HIGH TIDE. WILL
ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS IN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

STRATOCU WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF LOW WILL MAKE MORE HEADWAY
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WITH SCT-BKN
SKIES SPREADING INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BKN-OVC SPREADING DOWN
THE COAST. MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT MINS BEGIN TO MODERATE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH
MID/UPPER 60S NEAR THE EAST COAST AND MID/UPPER 50S WELL INLAND.

SUN-WED...GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SHOWING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA.

THIS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN BACKING OFF SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX. ALTHOUGH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE
MOISTURE WAS BEING TRAPPED BELOW 750MB HAVE KEPT LOW POP...20 OR
LESS...TO COVER COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES FROM THE COAST WELL INLAND.

THU...DAY OF TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE FLOW TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE
CUTOFF LOW IN THE ATLANTIC INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. CARRYING A 20 POP AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WELL NORTH OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FRI...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS SOUTH FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING DOWN THE PENINSULA. NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES IN A DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO BKN050 CIGS FROM AROUND KTIX NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER NELY AND INCREASE WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 16-18KT WITH OCNL SFC WINDS G23-28KT.
CIGS ~BKN040 AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA MORE PREVALENT NEAR THE COAST FROM
ARND KMLB NORTHWARD BUT OCNL BKN040 EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST AND ALSO WELL INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL VEER N TO NE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN WITH TIGHT
PGRAD SETTING UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. AFTER REVIEWING
MARINE/SHIP OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A GALE
WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO OFFSHORE SEGMENTS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH EXPECTED WINDS 25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SUN-MON...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OF AROUND 6 MB ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST SHOULD YIELD A 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND SUN
AND MON. LONG NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR FULLY ARISEN
SEAS WITH SEAS TO 16 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS...ROUGH/HIGH SEAS. HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS EACH DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUE-WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH DUE TO LARGE SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  63  78  63 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  75  59  80  61 /  10  10  20  10
MLB  76  67  79  68 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  77  68  80  67 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  73  57  79  60 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  75  59  80  62 /  10  10  20  10
ORL  75  59  79  63 /  10  10  20  10
FPR  77  68  81  67 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT TODAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WIMMER