Freeze Watch 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE S PENINSULA THIS AFTN AS A
STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD LOW
LVL STRATUS DECK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING
UP...MORNING PENINSULA RAOBS SHOW THE DECK IS TRAPPED BLO A SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H95-H80 LYR.  THE INVERSION WILL REQUIRE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEATING IN ORDER TO BREAK UP...BUT WITH H100-H90
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W/NW BEHIND A THE FRONT...THAT SCENARIO
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

WILL UPDATE THE MORNING PACKAGE TO INCREASE SKY COVER TO MCLDY
AREAWIDE THRU LATE AFTN...BCMG PTCLDY BY SUNSET.  GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR ADVECTION...ALSO WILL LOP 5F DEG
OF THE AFTN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 11/20Z...IFR CIGS AREAWIDE BTWN FL006-009...OCNL BINOVC PSBL
BUT WILL BE BRIEF.  BTWN 11/20Z-11/22Z CIGS BCMG MVFR BTWN
FL015-025.  BTWN 11/22Z-11/24Z...BCMG VFR...AREAS CIGS BTWN
FL040-050.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE/MODERATE NWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  THE NRLY COMPONENT WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED/SHORT PD SEAS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.  BUOY009
MEASURING 3-4FT SEAS WITH 4-5SEC PDS.  WHILE CONDITIONS DO NOT
WARRANT ANY SPECIAL STATEMENT...OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE POOR DUE TO
THE SHORT PD CHOP.  WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE
NO SIG CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
454 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-112100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
454 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER ALL
BUT MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...WITH SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE
COLD WEATHER.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 OR 7 FEET
BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES TO THE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THESE HIGHER SEAS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY SOUTH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL INCREASE DUE TO VERY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CRISTALDI