Flood Watch 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

166 
WGUS62 KMLB 081912
FFAMLB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FLZ041-045>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-147-100800-
/O.CON.KMLB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-111010T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND VOLUSIA-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...ORLANDO...SANFORD...
MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...VERO BEACH...
OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND...DAYTONA BEACH...
TITUSVILLE
312 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...COASTAL VOLUSIA...INDIAN RIVER...INLAND VOLUSIA... 
  MARTIN...NORTHERN BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA... 
  SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN BREVARD AND ST. LUCIE. 

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
  THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND DEEP
  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH. UPWARDS
  OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ALREADY TODAY ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF THE SPACE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR. TOTAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES
  ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.
  INLAND AREAS WILL RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS
  RECEIVING UP TO 5 TO 8 INCHES LOCALLY. THESE SIGNIFICANT
  RAINFALL TOTALS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE
  AREAS THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK

EAST CENTAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND DURING THE
WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...

CURRENT...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WL PUSH POCKETS OF MARINE SOURCE SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WELL INLAND DURING THE DAY. MORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SINCE TEH
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A QS BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANY LL WIND
CONVERGENCE REMAINS PRESENT NEAR ST LUCIE/MARTIN COS. RECENT SPENES
TEXT FROM NESDIS HIGHLIGHTED THE TREASURE COAST ALONG WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE ECFL CLAST FOR EGINNINGS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AND THE NECESSITY OF A FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ENTERTAINED OVER
THE COMING HOURS. ZONE FCST WL BE UPDATED BY 10 AM TO REFINE SHORT
TERM ZONE FORECAST. 1 PM COORD CALL WITH HPC/NHC WILL HELP WITH LTST
TRACK OF ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE FOR WEEKEND PLANNING PURPOSES.

TODAY/TONIGHT (MODIFIED PREV)...STRENGTHENING HI PRES RIDGE
BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STRONG E/NE FLOW
ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. FLOW PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS TYPICALLY
GENERATE SCT/NMRS SHRAS DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE
FIELD AND MOISTURE FETCH GENERATED BY PROPER WIND AZIMUTH
(PREFERABLY ~ 070 AND GREATER).

MID LVL VORTICITY FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THIS WILL
BE COMPENSATED BY AS RESPECTABLE MID LVL LAPSE RATE WITH H70 TEMPS
ARND 6C AND H50 TEMPS BTWN -9C AND -12C. IN ADDITION...AN H30-H20
TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC COAST FORMS
THE ERN PORTION OF A LARGE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN THAT SPANS THE
CONUS. THIS TROF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...PRODUCING GOOD UPR
LVL EVACUATION.

WILL KEEP POPS ABV GFS MOS GUIDANCE TODAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP AND THE SCT/NMRS SHRAS THAT HAVE PERSISTED
OVER THE ATLC FOR THE PAST SVRL HRS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITION
AND BEGINS TO TAP DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE E OF THE BAHAMAS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP ISOLD TSRAS THRU THE PD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPS ALOFT.  DEEP/PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (M80S)...MIN TEMPS 4-6C ABV AVG
(L/M70S).

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/NMRS MVFR SHRAS AND ISOLD IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES...VFR
INTERIOR...PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL060.  BTWN 07/14Z-07/17Z AND CONTG
THRU 08/00Z...E/NE SFC WNDS INCREASING TO 15-18KTS AREAWIDE WITH SFC
G22-25KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR SHRAS AND TSRAS. AFT
08/00Z...SFC WNDS DIMINISHING TO ARND 12KTS... SCT/NMRS SHRAS AND
ISOLD TSRAS COASTAL SITES...SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS INTERIOR SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...LCL DATA BUOYS MEASURING SUSTAINED SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS ARND 20KTS GUSTING ARND
25KTS...STEEP SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-9FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT
PDS BTWN 7-8SEC. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH
PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS MAINTAINS A FRESH TO STRONG E/NE
BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SFC GUSTS AOA 34KTS PSBL IN NUMEROUS SHRAS
AND ISOLD TSRAS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY COASTAL VOLUSIA...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER
     ST LUCIE...MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM EDT.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
RADAR/DECISION SUPPORT....SEDLOCK
RADAR/HYDROLOGY...BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1051 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-072200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1051 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEFLY INTENSE RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES DEEP MOISTURE ONSHORE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY HAS OCCURRED IN THE MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES...WHERE REPORTED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE
OCCURRED IN A FEW SPOTS. ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL CAUSE LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD THAT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 4 PM FOR
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE FOUR.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER AREA LAKES. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
STEADY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WAVES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
EAST SWELLS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE SURF
ZONE. BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF
CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES AS WELL...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS OVERALL WHEN COMBINED WITH THE RIP CURRENT
HAZARD. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH 2 30 PM DUE TO
TIDAL EFFECTS. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS BEFORE ENTERING THE
SURF AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD. NEVER SWIM
ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE ROUGH CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...BOATERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN
PORT OR AT DOCK.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A FRESH TO STRONG EAST NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC...GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET NEARSHORE
AND BUILDING UP TO 12 FEET WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARDS THE PENINSULA...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC HAZARDS RELATED TO LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND OR THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS.

SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION AT HIGH TIDE. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT
AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED. RAINFALL OBSERVERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING FOUR INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MELBOURNE.

PENDERGRAST/BRAGAW