Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FOR EARLY APRIL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN WI
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE. WITH THE
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS FAR NW WI AND THE WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI...AND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SE MN THROUGH
CENTRAL IA...THE FORECAST AREA IS RIGHT SMACK IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. MIXED LAYER CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. TONS OF SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM
VALUES CURRENTLY 55-65 KTS...AND MAY INCREASE TO 75 KTS BEFORE
STORMS GET GOING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRETTY CAPPED FOR THE
MOMENT...BUT APPROACHING JET STREAK SHOULD AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH AND LOCAL WRF MODEL
BRING STORMS INTO THE WEST BY 7 PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE
CONVECTION EXITING THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THERE AFTER AS
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS SRN WI.

GIVEN THE SETUP...THE STORM MODE STILL LOOKS TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH
GENERAL SCATTERED COVERAGE. DID NOT RAISE LIKELY POPS WITH DISCRETE
NATURE OF THE CELLS...BUT ENTIRE AREA AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NW CWA
WHERE SPC IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. STRONG
AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL
BE THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

TEMPS WILL COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE HIGHS ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED WAY
OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW. NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY AND MAV/MET POPS ARE QUITE LOW. CHOPPED
LIKELY POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE FOR NOW...WITH SOME SHOWER
POTENTIAL LINGERING. POPS MAY NEED BE TO BE LOWERED MORE LATER IF
CURRENT TREND PERSISTS.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO REGION. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODEL PRECIPITATION TIED CLOSELY TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH WHICH REMAINS NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES BRING QPF INTO THE WESTERN
CWA...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX THAT APPEARS TO
BE OVERDONE BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

COLDEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING LOW TO MID 30S. WARMING TUESDAY ON DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MIXING UP TO +4C TO +5C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES YIELDS MID 60S IN THE WEST...WHILE +3C IN THE EAST WILL
PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 60...THOUGH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZE TO INTRUDE WEST AT LEAST TO THE KETTLE MORAINE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 50S.

A BIT MORE NEAR-SURFACE MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S WEST AND UPPER 30S EAST...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
EVERYWHERE THOUGH AFTERNOON COOLING ALONG THE LAKE WITH DEVELOPING
LAKE BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY. MID-RANGE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING...BUT STILL TAKE NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM ACROSS N
CENTRAL IL INTO NRN INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LEAD SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THEN SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH CONVERGENCE FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE STALLED BOUNDARY KEEPING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND CLOSED SYSTEM INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. WILL ADD A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR A DRY BUT COOL
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE...OR EVEN
IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN. STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE WEST BY
00Z...CLEARING THE EAST BY AROUND 06Z. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
SCATTERED...WITH THE STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS. STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN
LATER TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...PROBABLY PERSISTING INTO MID
OR LATE MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...REMAINING
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...07/DDV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
359 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-112100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
359 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA INCLUDES LONE ROCK...MADISON...BARABOO...
PORTAGE...GREEN LAKE...BEAVER DAM AND FOND DU LAC. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LONE
ROCK TO CAMPBELLSPORT LINE UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

THE STRENGTH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR...COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AREA COVERED BY
THE MODERATE RISK.

ANYONE WITH PLANS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.

AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBIA...SAUK AND DANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR PARTICLE POLLUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-112100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
359 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 33 KNOTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON MONDAY.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  43.41N 88.70W
04/10/2011  M48 MPH          DODGE              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW JUNEAU            43.43N 88.78W
04/10/2011  M48.00 MPH       DODGE              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR MEASURED A 48 MPH NON-THUNDERSTORM
            WIND GUST.

0901 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREEN LAKE              43.84N 88.96W
04/10/2011  M0.40 INCH       GREEN LAKE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 0.40 INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES
            ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. MINOR STREET FLOODING
            IN GREEN LAKE.

0905 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MCFARLAND               43.02N 89.29W
04/10/2011  E45.00 MPH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES BENDING SLIGHTLY IN MCFARLAND.

&&

REM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

WIZ064>066-069>072-110345-
JEFFERSON-KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-WALWORTH-WAUKESHA-
943 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

AT 938 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DELAFIELD TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAPHAM PEAK STATE PARK AND WALES BY 950 PM CDT...
  WAUKESHA AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN WAUKESHA BY 955 PM CDT...
  WALWORTH AND POTTER LAKE BY 1000 PM CDT...
  WILLIAMS BAY AND NEW BERLIN BY 1005 PM CDT...
  BURLINGTON AIRPORT AND WIND LAKE BY 1010 PM CDT...
  FRANKLIN AND PELL LAKE BY 1015 PM CDT...
  MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND TWIN LAKES BY 1020 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

KAPELA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
951 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILTON                  42.78N 88.95W
04/10/2011  M49.00 MPH       ROCK               WI   MESONET

            FROM MESONET AT NORTHSIDE INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL.

&&

PZABEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
956 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     HAIL             2 NE AFTON              42.62N 89.04W
04/10/2011  M0.75 INCH       ROCK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PZABEL