Small Craft Advisory 93, NWS Milwaukee, WI

278 
WHUS73 KMKX 220945
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TODAY...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO REACH
THE LAKE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO INCREASE
AS WELL. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER EAST...INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LMZ643-221745-
/O.EXA.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.111122T1500Z-111123T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
345 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15
  TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BACK
  TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER
  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ646-221745-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.111122T1200Z-111123T1500Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
345 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
  KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
  SUBSIDE.

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 FEET TODAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ644-645-221745-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.111122T1500Z-111123T1200Z/
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
345 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
  TODAY...BACKING TO THE NORTH AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET TODAY...SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER
  TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

214 
WHUS73 KMKX 221325
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
725 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TODAY...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO
REACH THE LAKE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
INCREASE AS WELL. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST...INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LMZ643>645-222130-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.111122T1325Z-111123T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
725 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS 
  TODAY...BACKING TO THE NORTH AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET TODAY...SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER 
  TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ646-222130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1500Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
725 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 
  KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY 
  SUBSIDE. 

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 FEET TODAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING 
  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

628 
WHUS73 KMKX 221538
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
938 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
SOUTH PART OF THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO
REACH THE LAKE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
INCREASE AS WELL. 

THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
EAST...INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LMZ646-222345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1500Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
938 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
  AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT
  REMAIN BRISK. THE BRISK WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
  WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
  SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ643>645-222345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
938 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
  TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TOWARD WIND POINT. WINDS
  WILL REMAIN BRISK AND BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
  SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET TODAY...WITH 4 TO 7 FOOT WAVES
  TOWARD WIND POINT. WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

738 
WHUS73 KMKX 222144
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TONIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO REMAIN HIGH.

THESE WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
EAST...INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LMZ646-230545-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1500Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
344 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...BACKING NORTH THIS
  EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: 4 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ643>645-230545-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
344 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS...BACKING NORTH THIS
  EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: 4 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

574 
WHUS73 KMKX 230324
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.THE BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. 


LMZ643-230430-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
924 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE SUBSIDING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY.

$$

LMZ646-231130-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1200Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
924 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS...SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
  AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 6 FEET...SUBSIDING BELOW 4 FEET BY SUNRISE
  WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ644-645-230900-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T0900Z/
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
924 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
  DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
GEHRING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

603 
WHUS73 KMKX 230922
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CST WED NOV 23 2011

...WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDE...

.A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND RESULTANT
WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HENCE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LMZ646-231030-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T1200Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
322 AM CST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER TODAY. 

$$

LMZ644-645-231030-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-111123T0900Z/
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
322 AM CST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

PESKY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL 925 MB
RH SUGGESTS DRYING FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND STARTING TO SEE THIS ON SATELLITE. MAY BE SOME CLEAR
SKIES IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.
THUS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TOO FAR TONIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

CUT POPS QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SOUTHWARD WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 12Z ECMWF HELD
ONTO A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...THE MAIN REASON POPS WERE HELD ONTO
AT ALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND NORMAL...WITH 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 1-2C AND MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES EXPECTED...RESULTING IN LOW
TO MID 40S.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY AND REACHES THE APPALACHIANS
AS WEAK RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...WITH
MID LEVEL DRYING EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXITS OHIO AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES AS SURFACE HIGH REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS
IS QUICKER WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THAN 12Z NAM. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
IN BETWEEN. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT.

.THANKSGIVING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN.  LARGE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE WARMING
IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE NAM/06Z DGEX VS STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION
ON THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. INVERSION ON 12Z NAM IS NOT THAT
STRONG...WITH MAIN INVERSION AROUND 2 THSD FT. MEX MOS IS IN THE
LOWER 50S...AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL GIVEN A WEAKER INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

12Z GFS AND 06Z DGEX HAS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO WISCONSIN. THIS IS BECAUSE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX PHASES THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS MORE. EVEN SO SURFACE PRESSURE
FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR...WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER SPREAD OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE GFS. GIVEN THE DRY FLOW AND SLOW GULF MOISTURE
RETURN...WILL DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MID/UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR ON 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX...WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

12Z ECMWF HAS NOW MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER AND EVEN RETROGRADING
FROM WISCONSIN TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER...BUT GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL
CHANGES...STILL NOT TOO CONFIDENT. AS SUCH WILL LEAVE CONSENSUS
POPS/TEMPS ALONE.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON...AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES. MODEL 925 MB RH
INDICATES MVFR CIGS MAY SCATTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THESE CLOUDS. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES DO APPEAR TO SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH TAF SITES LIKELY
RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
OVERALL...NEWEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GO FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
LOW...INDICATING THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BUILD WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. THOUGH FORECAST IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR
WAVES OF GREATER THAN 4 FEET...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL
THE TRIGGER ON THE ADVISORY JUST YET. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS...MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY WAVES GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHT. EITHER WAY...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...WITH HOPEFULLY BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST BY 00Z MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-222145-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
338 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LMZ643>646-222145-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
338 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. EAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH DURING
THIS TIME.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS MAY REACH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HENTZ

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