Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Milwaukee, WI

586 
WHUS73 KMKX 201424
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY...

.A RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITING THE DAKOTAS WILL REACH THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE AND REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. APPEARS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHEN DRY SLOT AND BETTER DOWNWARD MOTION CONTRIBUTES TO DEEPER
MIXING...THIS WOULD BE LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

LMZ643-202230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.110920T2100Z-110921T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
924 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 
  KNOTS.

* WAVES: INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND 3 TO 5 
  FEET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

057 
WHUS73 KMKX 202049
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
BORDER WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WHEN THE DRY SLOT AND BETTER DOWNWARD MOTION
CONTRIBUTES TO DEEPER MIXING...FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LMZ644-645-210500-
/O.EXB.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.110920T2049Z-110921T2300Z/
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ646-210500-
/O.EXB.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.110921T1200Z-110921T2300Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS VEERING SOUTHWEST
  OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MID WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ643-210500-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.110920T2049Z-110921T2300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

977 
WHUS73 KMKX 210241
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER MINNESOTA
WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
WHEN THE DRY SLOT AND BETTER DOWNWARD MOTION CONTRIBUTES TO DEEPER
MIXING...FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LMZ643>645-211045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-110921T2300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
941 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ646-211045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.110921T1200Z-110921T2300Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
941 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS VEERING SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT... THEN
  INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

324 
WHUS73 KMKX 210829
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.

LMZ643>645-211630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-110921T2300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ646-211630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.110921T1200Z-110921T2300Z/
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 2 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

577 
WHUS73 KMKX 211439
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW WEAKENS.

LMZ643>646-212245-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-110922T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
939 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
  AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

633 
WHUS73 KMKX 212023
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-220300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-110922T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
323 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS 
  AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. 

* WAVES: 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

KAPELA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

496 
WHUS73 KMKX 220239
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...

.THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WITH THE OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW...WAVES HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLY.

LMZ643>646-220345-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-110922T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
939 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 2
TO 3 FEET TOWARD OPEN WATER.

$$

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY STILL BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT AREAS OF FOG HAVE
FORMED...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW AREAS. SOME
OF THE FOG WAS DENSE. FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE MORNING SUN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

MAIN CONCERN IS THEN STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THAT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK.  850 MB JET
INCREASES ACROSS IOWA AND INTO FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS WELL NORTH AS NOSE OF JET
PUSHES TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL STRONG CAP AROUND 7 THSD FT IS SLOW TO
WEAKEN.  UPWARD MOTION IS ALSO RATHER WEAK...AND INCREASING
SATURATION OCCURS MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE 10 THSD FT.  WILL
THEREFORE LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
MADISON.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW REACHES THE DULUTH AREA JUST NEAR SUNRISE AS SURFACE
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND OCCLUDES. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE AREA AGAIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK ELEVATED CAPE
AROUND 25 J/KG WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NAM MOS POPS
ARE HIGHER THAN THE RELATIVELY DRY GFS. PREFER A BLEND FOR NOW.
DRY SLOT SHOULD REACH SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THUS SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. NOT SEEING A TON OF MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDINGS...BUT ENOUGH THERE WITH A LITTLE LIFT TO THINK THERE COULD
BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS...LIKELY DIMINISHING AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE FLOW
AND DROPPING INTO SW WISCONSIN BY EVENING. SHOULD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...BUT SOUNDINGS EVEN DRIER THAN WEDNESDAY..SO OPTED
TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED AND A MILDER AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE. THE INTRUSION OF CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING...EXPECT
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
DISREGARDED THE NAM FOR THE TIME...AS IT IS MUCH COOLER THAN OTHER
MODELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

FOR THE MOMENT...GFS AND ECMWF IN RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT RUN TO
RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
IMPROVING. GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES COOLER
TOO...AS THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE LOW EAST ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL KEEP IT
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO HOLD ONTO POPS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW AREAS.  FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE MORNING
SUN COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

THEN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CIRRUS THIS MORNING UNTIL MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5 OR 6 THSD FT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW EXIT THE DAKOTAS AND REACH THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. EXPECTING SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. APPEARS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN DRY
SLOT AND BETTER DOWNWARD MOTION CONTRIBUTES TO DEEPER
MIXING....THIS WOULD BE LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-210300-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
959 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. SOME RURAL LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LMZ643>646-210300-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
959 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE
REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY BE
NEEDED.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX