Small Craft Advisory 58, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA /CWA/ WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN WI SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI
THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT
IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
TROUGH THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER FORCING WITH THE TROUGH TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS...SO EXPECTING IT TO BE PRETTY UNEVENTFUL.

THAT SAID...IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND BE
ELEVATED...THEY COULD BE SUSTAINED IN THE HIGH-CAPE...WELL-CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. THERFORE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH/FRONT SINKS JUST SOUTH OF WI/IL BORDER AND ALSO INTO FAR
WESTERN WI. WE COULD BE ON THE EASTERN/NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY
CONVECTION THAT RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHWEST CWA...MAINLY TUE MORNING.

HEAT STILL THE STORY IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA TUE...WITH HEAT INDICES
EXPECTED IN THE LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT HEADLINES AS THEY WERE.
FOR EASTERN CWA...HEAT INDICES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 90S SINCE HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWS IN THE LOWER 70S...NOT QUITE
CRITERIA. THEREFORE...NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH FCST CONFIDENCE

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NRN PLAINS TUE NT AND MOVE
INTO SWRN ONTARIO CANADA ON WED. THIS WILL AID IN THE NWD MOVEMENT
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER
ON TUE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER NORTH OF KMSN AND KMKE FOR
TUE NT WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LESS CAPPING WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT.

BREEZY SWLY WINDS TO PREVAIL ON WED AS STRONG SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SRN CANADA. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNDER STRONG CAPPING BUT MIXING
WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND TO NEAR 850 MB. THUS EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S OR POSSIBLY THE UPPER 60S.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110.

FOR THU...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI BUT UPPER
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE.
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDER. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DROP IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB HIGHER.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF SE WI THROUGH THU EVENING. ERN WI WILL EVENTUALLY NEED
EITHER A HEAT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR
WED THROUGH THU EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM FCST CONFIDENCE

LOW PRESSURE TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI AND
MOVE NEWD INTO CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT FOR FRI NT AND SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR SUN. THUS TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING AT
ALL THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH ONLY JUST A CHANCE. THEN PROBABLY DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM MADISON AND EASTWARD. CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD FORM ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. NOT
SURE HOW DENSE...BUT LIFR VSBY/CIG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THEN VFR
CLOUDS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING
GUSTY WEST WINDS INTO LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO SHORE. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 02Z WHEN MIXING WANES
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

HAZE TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WESTERLY WINDS PUSH
HIGH DEW POINT AIR OUT OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER LAKE WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS A COOL
FRONT/TROUGH DROPS THROUGH REGION...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT KEEPING THE HAZE MENTION
UNLESS FOG ACTUALLY FORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056>058-062>064-067>070.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-059-
     060-065-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13

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