Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Milwaukee, WI

488 
WHUS73 KMKX 030223
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
923 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES TO BUILD TO CRITERIA AS WELL.

LMZ643>646-031030-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0052.110603T1600Z-110604T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
923 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT
FRIDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
  EVENING. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY 
  EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

646 
WHUS73 KMKX 030859
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
359 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES TODAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. 

THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LMZ643>646-031700-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0052.110603T1600Z-110604T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
359 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
  LATER THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE
  AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SUBSIDING
  TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

MBK

058 
WHUS73 KMKX 031418
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVES TODAY...

.A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES TODAY.

THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LMZ643>646-032230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0052.110603T1600Z-110604T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
918 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH 
  LATER THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE 
  AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY 
  SUBSIDING TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

602 
WHUS73 KMKX 032044
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...BREEZY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES INTO THE EVENING...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS AND
HIGHER WAVES INTO THE EVENING.

THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LMZ643>646-040300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-110604T0300Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
344 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
  KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE
  EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING THIS EVENING INTO
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES OF AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IW SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMPLEX IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROLLING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING...SO MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE. WITH THE WEAK 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION HEADING INTO
SOUTHWEST WI...EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...TOWARD NW MN...AND THEN RIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
850MB WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY CLIP THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND IS
ELEVATED...MODEL SNDGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE OVER 1500J/KG IN THE
MORNING. THE CAP STAYS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE 700MB WAA GETS THROUGH
LATE IN THE MORNING...AND SFC BASED CAPE GROWS TO GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA/MISSOURI COULD EVENTUALLY
CLIP SOUTHERN WI AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z FRI MORNING...SO MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR 12-15Z TIME PERIOD.
THEN SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE WARM...BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MID
CLOUDS CLUTTERING UP THE REGION...WENT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL
KEEP THOSE TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTLING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE NRN CWA...CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING
AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WITH THE LOW. CONVECTION WILL FIRE UPSTREAM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WILL BE AT THE EDGE OF THE 700MB CAP...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY STORMS. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

RATHER QUIET THIS PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH A
DRIER FLOW KEEPING THE PCPN SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE SOME
SLGT CHCS LINGERING NEAR THE BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY YET AS TO THE DISTANCE OF THE SFC FNT OVR NRN/CNTRL
IL. COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN AS WELL.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GOOD FOR A CHANCE FOR STORMS.
GFS PROG SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME NEAR SFC BASED CAPES CLIMBING TO
ABOUT 1600J/KG. DEGREE OF MOISTURE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM. IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE QUIETEST STRETCH.
THEN A SERIES OF RIDGE RIDING AND RIDGE BUCKLING SHORT WAVES WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING THE THREAT FOR STORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TIMING NEAR IMPOSSIBLE THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-030930-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH INDEX
READINGS REACHING THE LOWER 90S WEST OF A BURLINGTON TO PORTAGE LINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ONE INCH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO THE WISCONSIN DELLS
AND POINTS NORTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FAR SOUTH.

THERE ARE ALSO SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-030930-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 10 PM ON
FRIDAY AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WAVES.

A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ONE INCH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS SOUTH OF WIND POINT.

THERE ARE ALSO SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

DAVIS