Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Milwaukee, WI

681 
WWUS53 KMKX 110955
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
455 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

WIC021-027-039-047-131-111004-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-110711T1000Z/
COLUMBIA WI-DODGE WI-FOND DU LAC WI-GREEN LAKE WI-WASHINGTON WI-
455 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...
EASTERN GREEN LAKE...FOND DU LAC...DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.

LAT...LON 4398 8888 4390 8888 4390 8841 4393 8841
      4391 8816 4351 8830 4327 8861 4329 8964
      4359 8922 4398 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 279DEG 44KT 4380 8811 4348 8834
          4326 8867

$$
COLLAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
406 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ONGOING COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD RUN THEIR COURSE BY MID MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
FIRST SQUALL LINE THAT STARTED IN THE DAKOTAS HAD SHOWN A WEAKENING
TREND IN BOTH WARMING IR TOPS AND REFLECTIVITIES BUT HAS PERKED UP
AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

OF MORE INTEREST IS FAST MOVING TRAILING MCS WITH A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES THAT SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.  SEVERAL MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS
INCLUDING THE OMA AND DSM AREAS AS IT HAS MOVED ALONG.

WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH GUT FEELING
IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTION IS OVER BY LATE MORNING AND DRYING WILL
COMMENCE WITH CONFLUENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AND FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AT 850 MB.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SW TOWARD
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER BY WED MORNING.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD BE A
VERY PLEASANT DAY...WITH THE HIGH BRINGING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN
ALONG WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH SUNDAY. IF
THIS PATTERN HOLDS...THE ONE THING THAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT IT
WILL HEAT UP. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTING 90S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE BY SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING AROUND 100 IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT OF
POSSIBLE CLOUDS/CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW HOT IT
GETS...BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE IS GETTING WARMER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN A BIT OF A PUZZLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEEMS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS IN THU AND FRIDAY THAN OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER IA/MO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CLOSE THE DOOR ON PRECIP FOR THE TIME. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST...SO JUST KEPT LOW POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING.  FIRST BATCH OF
STORMS WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 11Z THOUGH
COULD CLIP KMSN SHORTLY.

NEXT BATCH ON TAP FOR ROUGHLY 1230Z AT MSN AND ABOUT 14 TO 15Z AT
KMKE.  THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS AT
BOTH OMA AND DSM OVERNIGHT SO POTENTIAL FOR 35+ KNOT GUSTS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BRIEFLY MVFR TO IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV/07
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...CRAVEN/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-120045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE
FROM THE DELLS TO WEST OF MINERAL POINT. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE LATE TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA
REACHES PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A BOW ECHO
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGEVILLE TO BELOIT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

LMZ643>646-120045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL TURN TO
EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

WIZ046-056-057-110900-
COLUMBIA-MARQUETTE-SAUK-
308 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SAUK COUNTY AND THE WISCONSIN
DELLS AREA OF COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 304 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTH OF
REEDSBURG TO 32 MILES WEST OF REEDSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  REEDSBURG BY 330 AM CDT...
  WISCONSIN DELLS AND LAKE DELTON BY 340 AM CDT...
  WISCONSIN DELLS AIRPORT BY 345 AM CDT...
  WEST BARABOO BY 350 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

CRAVEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

WIZ046-047-056>058-110945-
COLUMBIA-DODGE-GREEN LAKE-MARQUETTE-SAUK-
341 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO MARQUETTE...GREEN
LAKE...EASTERN SAUK...AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 339 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES WEST OF
BERLIN TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARABOO...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PORTAGE AND MONTELLO BY 355 AM CDT...
  I90/94 WI RIVER BRIDGE AND LODI BY 400 AM CDT...
  PRINCETON AND POYNETTE BY 405 AM CDT...
  BERLIN BY 410 AM CDT...
  RIO AND MARKESAN BY 415 AM CDT...
  FALL RIVER BY 430 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. A COUPLE OF TREES MAY ALSO GO DOWN.  STAY
AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

CRAVEN