Heat Advisory 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION SECTIONS

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED NARROW LINE OF ACCUS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BEHIND THE LINE. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVOLVED INTO
MANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINED UP ALONG THE MN/IA/WI BORDER BY 3 AM.
THESE STORMS WERE TRIGGERED BY A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION...AND
SEEMED TIED TO THE HIGH/LOW CAPE GRADIENT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. RUC FCST SNDGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM 900MB OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA/COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR FAR WESTERN CWA.
MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF
STORMS ARE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING...LOOKING AT
CORFIDI VECTORS. HOWEVER...HIGHER THETA-E ADVECTION IN NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECTING CONVECTION TO GRAVITATE TOWARD CENTRAL
WI RATHER THAN SOUTHERN WI...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING.

WE WILL CAP OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO TOOK
OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB MODEL
VORTICITY SHOWING A HINT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THAT COULD
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CWA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS
OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR
POTENTIAL. 925MB TEMPS ARE 25 TO 27C THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO GET UP TO AROUND 70F IN THE FAR WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER 100F.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

00Z NAM/GFS MODELS NOW KEEPING WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS ENTRENCHES THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS...WHICH EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA FROM CONVECTION.
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. NAM 2 METER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH
925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THUS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S SEEM REASONABLE. DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S SHOULD GIVE HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...PERHAPS REACHING 100 IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING REACHED ARE BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN CAPPED AND DRY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...NEAR RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.

MODELS TRYING TO GENERATE QPF ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WHICH
SEEMS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE CAPPING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE MORNING DRY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS PLUS...GIVE A DECENT SHOT AT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR
SOUTH MAY SEE PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS SPILL OVER...SO
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED...WITH
MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. VARIOUS VORTICITY
MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE ALSO HAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING WITH IT. GIVEN
THESE DIFFERENCES...LEANED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM FRONT
THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREAT. SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES CENTRAL WI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION...13/MRC

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