Gale Watch 6, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
RETROGRADES AROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. AREA OF DEEP LAYER Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AS SYSTEM UNDERGOES OCCLUSION MONDAY...DRY AIR SHOULD WRAP INTO
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. TRENDED FROM CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING TO
LIKELY/CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES INCREASE
MONDAY NEAR THE LAKE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. MEAN
LAYER CAPES ARE WEAK IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SO...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AT LEAST ON
MONDAY. FUNNEL CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE MONDAY...AS
LAKE INDUCED CAPES INCREASE AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE/DELTA T
VALUES INCREASE. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GOING.

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE MONDAY...WITH
MIXING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SHOULD ALSO
PRODUCE BRISK WINDS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE MONDAY AS WELL.

VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BATTLE
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO UPPER LOW. THUS...WENT WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
TO MEDIUM.

MAY HAVE TO ADD LOW END POPS TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA PER
SLOWER ECMWF. THE GFS IS QUICK TO MOVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE
REGION...WHICH SEEMS TOO FAST GIVEN THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE FAST BIAS THE GFS HAS HAD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ECMWF NOW IS SHOWING THE SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING...WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
YESTERDAY...WHERE IT WAS SHOWING A MUCH FLATTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WEAKER COLD FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER WITH THE
FLATTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...COMING SOON...

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250915-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND
OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTING FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-250915-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AND WATERSPOUTS IS
DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATER TEMPERATURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS WILL BUILD
WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

GEHRING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX