Gale Watch 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

---POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING BLIZZARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY---

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WI
COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER DARK THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL WARM A
BIT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ONSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME
FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST TNGT.  DELTA-T
INCREASES TO ABOUT 14 DEGREES AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES
ALONG LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  LAKE INDUCED CAPE INCREASES TO OVER 200
J/KG AT SHEBOYGAN /KSBM/ AS 850-700 RH INCREASES TO OVER 80 PERCENT
AFT MIDNIGHT TNGT.  HENCE EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FROM MKE NWD TO SBM LATER TNGT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON AND
MON NGT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO FOCUS THE BEST LAKE EFFECT CONVERGENT
ZONE WITH THE DEEPEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LAYER AT SBM...WHILE THE
GFS FAVORS BOTH SBM AND MKE FOR DECENT SNOW. LEANING TOWARD NAM AT
THIS TIME.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SHOT FOR CONCENTRATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND FOR A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT...PROBABLY BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...PROBABLY OVER SHEBOYGAN...THEN JUST UNORGANIZED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY ALONG ALL OF THE
LAKESHORE AS 1000-850MB WIND FLOW VEERS DUE EAST. THE NAM AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO HINT AT DRY AIR ACROSS KENOSHA AREA...SO WENT WITH LOWER
CHANCE OF PRECIP THERE.

MEANWHILE...SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL 5 TO 7 INCH SWATH OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SINCE IT IS OVER SUCH A LONG DURATION AND SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WENT
WITH ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/.

MONDAY NIGHT- FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

COUPLED JET CIRCULATION AT 250 MB BETWEEN EXITING 120 KNOT WIND
MAX OVER QUEBEC AND 140 KNOT WIND MAX RAPIDLY TRANSLATING FROM
KANSAS INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN DURING THE NIGHT. INVERTED TROUGH
STARTS TO WEAKEN BUT MODELS KEEP MODERATE LIFT GOING WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST FRONTOGENESIS. OF MOST CONCERN IS
UNUSUALLY DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE -12C TO -18C RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS ROUGHLY 3.5
KM DEEP. THIS AND THE 528 DM THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH RATIOS
ON THE ORDER OF 16 TO 20:1 DURING THIS TIME.

TUESDAY- FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

250 MB SPEED MAX RACES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTENSIFIES TO 175
KNOTS WHILE NEW 160 KNOT WIND MAX MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE IN NEW COUPLET JET
CIRCULATION WITH NAM AND GFS ALMOST IDENTICAL IN TRACK FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS. 12Z ECMWF CHECKED IN JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT.

IT APPEARS NOW THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO LULL IN THE SNOW
BETWEEN THE LEAD SPEED MAX AND THE PRIMARY SYSTEM. THUS...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS RUN UNTIL 21Z WHEN THE BLIZZARD AND
WINTER STORM WATCHES THEN KICK IN.

MEANWHILE THIS WHOLE TIME THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -14C WILL RESULT IN DELTA TS ON
THE ORDER OF 17. THUS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY- FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TAKING CLASSIC TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MODELS ALL
SHOW 55-65 KNOT NORTHEAST 850 MB WIND MAX TRANSLATING RIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WI...REPRESENTING AT LEAST A
NEGATIVE 4 STANDARD DEVIATION FEATURE WHICH IS TEXTBOOK FOR MAJOR
SNOWSTORMS.

STORM TOTAL LIQUID VALUES IN THE KENOSHA AREA RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES LOOKING AT THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. WHAT IS RARE
ABOUT THIS STORM IS THE EXTREMELY DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE...AROUND 4KM DEEP...THAT IS SHOWN. AVERAGE UPWARD MOTION
EXCEEDS 10 MICROBARS/SECOND IN THIS LAYER AND WITH THICKNESSES
DOWN AROUND 528 DM...THE RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR SHOULD BE THE GALE FORCE WINDS...WHICH OF COURSE
WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MODELS WERE CONSISTENTLY
GIVING 20:25 TO 1 RATIOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED
THOSE INTO THE 15:17 TO 1 RANGE TO BE CONSERVATIVE. THIS STILL
YIELD ABOUT 2 FEET OF SNOW IN THE KENOSHA AREA. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -14C CAN
NOT BE IGNORED. TAKING THE ECMWF AND NAM LITERALLY WITH 2" OF
LIQUID AND 15:1 RATIO WOULD BE 30 INCHES.  WOW.

GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S DURING THE EVENT...A
MAJOR BLIZZARD SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER. COMPARING THIS STORM
HISTORICALLY TO THE EARLY JANUARY BLIZZARD OF 1999...THAT STORM
DROPPED 14 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA AND 4 TO 8
FOOT DRIFTS WERE COMMON EAST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO
JANESVILLE. TOTAL FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES
SUGGEST NEAR RECORD TOTALS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

STORMS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
POWDERY SNOW CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PARALYZE THE AREA FOR
MORE THAN A DAY AS IT TAKES TIME TO PLOW THROUGH THE HUGE DRIFTS
THAT CAN FORM.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY- FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BLIZZARD SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH
LITTLE MODIFICATION AS MOST ATTENTION PAID TO THE 3 DAY SNOW EVENT
IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS TNGT AS LAKE
EFFECT SHSN DEVELOP IN THE EAST AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
RESULTS IN AREAS OF -SN OVER REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER-SNOW-RATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF
MKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SBM. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI ON MON...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO MUCH
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE STEADIER SNOW MON NIGHT WITH
AROUND 4 INCHES EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THE DAY TUE...THEN
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A ROUND OF
HEAVY SNOW FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN WI.
THE HARDEST HIT WILL BE KENOSHA AND SOUTH WHO COULD SEE UP TO TWO
FEET OF SNOW...AND AREAS FROM JVL TO UES TO ETB COULD GET AT LEAST
ONE FOOT OF SNOW. MUCH OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL TUE
NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN
GTLAKES ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS AND MIXING.  WINDS WL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE AT BLUSTERY LEVELS THROUGH WED
NGT UNTIL STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE ERN GTLAKES.  WIND SPEEDS
AER EXPECTED TO BE AT HIGH GALE LEVELS TUE NGT THRU WED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVY IN EFFECT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...AND GALE WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ064>066-068>072.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WIZ051-056>058-062-063-067-068.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-064-065-069-070.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WIZ066-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-056>059-062-063-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ052-060.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
711 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-311315-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
711 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
AROUND SHEBOYGAN AND PORT WASHINGTON. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING 4 AM CST MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES NORTH OF MILWAUKEE MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....AND FOR MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY...FROM
THE ARKANSAS AREA TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE PATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST
BEND...WAUKESHA...JEFFERSON...JANESVILLE AND ELKHORN AREAS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 14 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND/OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...HOWEVER
SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-311315-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
711 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK