Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN ISSUE IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/JET LET
WRAPPING NORTHEAST AROUND NE NEB/SE SD UPPER SYSTEM. 18Z DVN WAS
QUITE DRY WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TORNADIC POTENTIAL
INCREASING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE EAST/WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS DECENT OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE 0-6 KM
SHEAR AND 0-1 SHEAR VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...WITH BEST MLCAPE IS
IN EASTERN CWA FEEDING NORTHWEST. THINK BEST ROTATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF CWA CLOSER TO WARM FRONTAL POSITION. TORNADO WATCH 532
FOR PART OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. PROGGS IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING CONVECTION NORTH OF CWA AROUND 6Z AS MID LEVEL
DRYING SHIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND OMEGA/SHORTWAVE HEAD OFF.
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND STRATUS/FOG TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY
AS PRE WARM-FRONTAL AIRMASS MOIST AND SOUTHEAST AND KEEPING AREAS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE VULNERABLE FOR FOG SHIFTING INLAND.

WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL PLOD ACROSS WISCONSIN. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING A LOT OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TODAY NEAR AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER. SO PLENTY OF SHOWERS/LOW TOPPED THUNDER. CAPE IS
SHALLOW AND SKINNY BUT LOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWS IN THE LOW 60S AND 850 DEWS 10-12C. 500 TEMPS ONLY -10 TO
-11C...SO NOT AN OVERLY CHILLY LOW. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER BUT NOT
EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE...BUT LATE JUNE WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM...WILL
STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME SORT OF UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE. OVERALL
LIKE THE IDEA OF SPC SHIFTING SLIGHT RISK TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS PORTION OF FORECAST REMAINS DOMINATED BY PROGRESSION OF NEARLY
STACKED SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSING WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS SYSTEM IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z THURSDAY AND ONLY REACHES THE
CENTRAL U.P. OF MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. NOT ALL NIGHT/DAY RAINS AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN LIFT AHEAD OF...THEN FALL OFF WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND CENTRAL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SOME MINIMAL CAPE THURSDAY...BUT WITH MEAGER
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE -10 TO -11C RANGE
LOOKS MOSTLY SHOWERY.

COLDEST 850 TEMPS REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM THROUGH
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NOT A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING UNDER THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WED NIGHT AND MID 60S THURSDAY IN GUIDANCE LOOKING GOOD.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL SLOWLY LOWER CHANCE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW OF SLOW MOVING SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. WILL BE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
NAM/GEM AND ECMWF FASTER BRINGING DRIER AIR IN AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE GFS FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE
OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE SO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL KEEP FIRST PORTION OF EXTENDED DRY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER REGION SATURDAY...AND SHORT WAVES REMAINING WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING NEAR-ZONAL FLOW AROUND
BROAD 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PRECIPITATION WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...MAINLY IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE ON
MONDAY...WITH ENOUGH FORCING REACHING SOUTH FROM DEEPER TROUGH
CROSSING THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER TO WARRANT A CHANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY TUE WITH NW FLOW ON ECMWF...WITH POSSIBLE RIDGE RIDER MCS
COMING ACROSS PER GFS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING...THROUGH ABOUT 6Z...THEN MID LEVEL DRYING. LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION...THOUGH HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAN TAF SITES.
WILL MENTION STRATUS IN TAFS BUT NOT GO TOO IN VSBYS AT THIS POINT.
UPPER LOW COMES ACROSS WEDNESDAY SO MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS GIVEN ONGOING
TRENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH EVENING WITH STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERN
ZONE IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SLUGGISH AT BEST AS WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SHEBOYGAN SOCKED IN PRETTY GOOD. WILL EXTEND THE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN ZONE...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT LIFT NORTH...MAY NEED
TO EXTEND THE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME...AND POSSIBLY IN AREA DEPENDING
ON WHERE BOUNDARY ENDS UP AFTER CONVECTION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...10/PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-221200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR A PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND GREEN AND ROCK COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO MODERATE STORM
MOTION.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...
ESPECIALLY IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDED LOW
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-221200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AS
MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM
FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOIST CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
702 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT HOREB             43.01N 89.73W
06/21/2011  E50 MPH          DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATED TO ONE HALF INCH THAT
            PRODUCED MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
809 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WAUWATOSA               43.06N 88.03W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING REPORTED AT HWY 100...BLUEMOUND
            INTERSECTION...TOTAL ESTIMATED FROM RADAR FOR ONE HOUR
            TIME PERIOD.

&&

SEARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WIZ057-058-063-220145-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN DANE AND EASTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF SUN PRAIRIE...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OTSEGO...             RIO...                DOYLESTOWN...
  CAMBRIA...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
822 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WIZ046-057-220145-
COLUMBIA-MARQUETTE-
822 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS WESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY AND
INTO SOUTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTY...

AT 818 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORTAGE...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ENDEAVOR...           OXFORD...             PACKWAUKEE...
  GLEN OAK...           MONTELLO...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MRC