Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER...AND UPPER LOW OVER TN WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN NC. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER SC/CENTRAL NC MOVING E/NE THIS MORNING...THIS WILL SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR DRY COLUMN TO
SATURATE. SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC TODAY
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...RAIN WILL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH BEST
CHANCES BTWN 11-18Z. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY 1-2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESP FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS...THOUGH THINK OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THREAT
LOW. LOW LEVEL E/SE WINDS WILL BE BACKING THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THEN BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC LOW. LOW CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO...WITH
HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S-60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN...THOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
STRENGTHENS BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE-STRONG N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR OUTER BANKS
AND CARTERET COUNTY. PRECIP WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM W-E THIS
EVENING AS LOW MOVES E. OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIUOS FCST WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER SAT AND SUN...ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS BOTH DAYS WITH CLOUDS LIMITING WARM-UP. MODEL
RH X-SCTN FCSTS INDICATE LOW LVL MSTR SPREDING IN WITH NE FLOW
SATURDAY UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERION...AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN SHALLOW MSTR LAYER AND KEPT POPS OFF COAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR MON-THU PERIOD AS LATEST MODELS SHOW
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH PATTERN. RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST
OVER AREA MON-WED WITH STACKED LOW WELL OFF SE COAST...WITH
PERSISTENT NE FLOW CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG COAST. NEXT UPR TROF WITH SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE
IN THU WITH CHC OF SHOWERS. INCOMING 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL DURING PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS
MORNING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AND EXPECT PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN HEAVIER PRECIP. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IMPROVING LATE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT. MODERATE N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR EWN 14R/32L RUNWAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM N ON SAT
BUT LOW LVL MSTR WITH NE FLOW UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCU...WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KEWN AND KOAJ. TIGHT PRES GRAD
WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...WITH VFR PERSISTING REST OF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...CURRENT OBS SHOW LIGHT WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 4-6FT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME N/NE AND INCREASE VERY QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
WATERS AND SOUNDS LOOK GOOD. HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERNIGHT 10-15FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...AND UP TO
12FT SOUTH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS DURING FCST PERIOD AS
MODEL BLEND WITH LEAN TO STRONGER GFS SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST. STRONG
NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH 1032 MB SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM N WHILE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TO SE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW 25 KT UNTIL LATE FOR
SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. STALLED SFC PATTERN WITH HIGH PRES TO N-NE
AND LOW WELL OFFSHORE TO SE WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW REST
OF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AND TUE.

WITH STRONGER NE WINDS PERSISTING INTO SAT...FOLLOWED WW3 TREND OF
BUILDING SEAS BUT CAPPED AT 18 FT OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL WATERS. SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND THEN EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD BUT REMAINING AT OR
ABOVE 6 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN. AT THIS TIME
THINK MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HATTERAS
WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING AT 15-18FT SATURDAY.

ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND...LOWER NEUSE RIVER...AND OBX DARE. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASE WATER LEVELS OF 2-3FT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALSO LEAD TO OVERWASH FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...ESP
THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE PORTIONS ALONG HWY 12.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ093>095.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ095.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM/JME
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...CQD/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CQD

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