Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED TODAY IN OUR AREA TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INLAND ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. USED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND SCALED BACK SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. SMOKE SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS. CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT HIGHS A BIT SO WENT ON COOL
END OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. ONLY REAL
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO UPPER 60S INLAND.
FAVORED LOW END OF POP GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING SE...THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER
LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. MDLS CONT TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF
DEEP INLAND LATE SAT SO WILL CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POPS.
VEERING/RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID LEVEL TROF DIGGING WEST OF THE MTNS.
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCOMING MID LEVEL FORCING SUGGESTS
INCREASING CHCS FOR SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
HOLD AT HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT THIS MAY BE INCREASED AS
TIMING AND DURATION IS BETTER RESOLVED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TEMPS REMAINING NEAR CLIMO WITH LOWS UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BUT
CUD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER IF THICKER CLOUDS DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY.

SFC FRONT AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUSH OFF THE NC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS/SCTD SHOWERS SHUD
DEVELOP MONDAY GIVEN THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S. CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS ARE FOR WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL THRU MONDAY.

THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL PCPN
CHCS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE TUE-THU TIMEFRAME. CURRENT LONGER RANGE
MODEL PROJECTIONS KEEP ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE EAST COAST
THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 AM FRI...EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SMOKE SHOULD NOT BE THE ISSUE AS IT WAS
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH CB IN TAF.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TO CONT SAT OTHER
THAN BRIEF EARLY MORN FOG AND/OR ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAT
AFTN. CHANCES FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN INCOMING
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROF. LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
IMPROVING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 AM FRI...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS AS EAST TO NE
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT WILL BRING 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...SLOWLY VEERING WINDS FROM E TO SE THRU
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CENTER TO THE NE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA.
SEAS WILL CONT AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FEET SAT...MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS
OUTER SRN WTRS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. MAINLY S
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT SUNDAY...SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS BECOME
MORE WRLY MON AS FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS...THEN MAINLY NW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TUE. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT 10 TO 15 KTS MON INTO
TUE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/HSA
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RSB/RF/HSA
MARINE...RSB/RF/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-130800-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
353 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

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