Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1052 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...ONE MAIN BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
EXITING MAINLAND DARE COUNTY...ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ILL DEFINED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC. SHOWERS AND STORMS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS AN AREA NORTH AND WEST OF GREENVILLE. CURRENT
HIGH CHANCE/SCT POP GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. THE AREA OF THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL BOUTS OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WEAK WEST TO EAST FLOW TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STAYING DRY TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. BUMPED MAX T'S DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING MOST OF THE CWA. HRRR DEVELOPS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION AFTER 18Z ACROSS ONSLOW COUNTY NE THROUGH PAMLICO
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
SHORTWAVE VORTICITY CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE ONE QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN WITH PW VALUES AOA 2" AND MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE PRODUCING DEEP ASCENT ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING DRYING OF THE
COLUMN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN FORECAST POPS AND PRECIPITATION. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND DECREASE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST
ALONG THE COAST WHERE DECAYING FRONT FORECAST IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED.

GRADUAL DRYING CONTINUES INTO TUE AND WED WITH UPPER TROUGH
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD THU-SAT WITH HOT WEATHER RETURNING.
HIGH TEMPS INTO AT LEAST MID 90S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...ALONG WITH
A RETURN OF LOW CHC DIURNAL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT MVFR/IFR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND 13/14Z. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

/LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS INTO MONDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION. VFR PREVAILING
TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED SEAS 1 TO 2 FT WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ANOTHER GOOD BOATING DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FT AND WEAK SURFACE FLOW...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
WATERS TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

/LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER AREA WILL DISSIPATE
MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO W-NW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW AGAIN BECOMES SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN INCREASE TO S TO SW 15 KT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE PATTERN RETURNS TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
INLAND TROF/OFFSHORE HIGH.

SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT THROUGH TUE...THEN BUILDING TO 4-5 FT OUTER
PORTIONS WED-THU WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SE
SWELL FROM A POTENTIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE TROPICS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-012000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH MAIN THREATS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

NCZ029-044-079-311915-
GREENE-MARTIN-PITT-
218 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PITT...MARTIN AND GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF OAK
CITY TO FOUNTAIN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TARBORO TO FARMVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BELL ARTHUR...
FALKLAND...BRUCE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 7721 3599 7719 3593 7719 3594 7704
      3581 7713 3553 7740 3553 7775 3566 7769
      3576 7752 3580 7748 3581 7743 3584 7739
      3583 7735 3591 7735 3599 7741 3607 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 241DEG 8KT 3604 7748 3566 7762

29

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

NCZ044-079-091>093-311915-
CRAVEN-GREENE-JONES-LENOIR-PITT-
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JONES...CRAVEN...LENOIR...
PITT AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ORMONDSVILLE TO
WOODINGTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FARMVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF KINSTON...MOVING EAST AT 15MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROUNDTREE...AND...
GRAINGERS...WYSE FORK...AND...AYDEN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 7737 3512 7746 3507 7775 3553 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 251DEG 10KT 3551 7753 3514 7762

29

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